Sharp-eyed traders appear to have secured significant windfalls by correctly wagering on the dramatic capture of Venezuela's president, Nicolás Maduro, on controversial online prediction markets.
How Prediction Markets Anticipated a Geopolitical Shock
The arrest of the Venezuelan leader, which was announced by Donald Trump on Saturday morning, seems to have been anticipated by savvy punters. These individuals placed timely bets on platforms like Polymarket.com, where users gamble on future political and financial events.
Prediction markets operate as online gambling hubs, allowing participants to bet against each other on binary outcomes created by the host site. The markets can range from the identity of a future presidential nominee to the daily movement of the S&P 500.
One apparent new trader on Polymarket invested $30,000 on the market titled 'Maduro out by January 31, 2026?' last Friday. Following the confirmation of Maduro's capture, that same investor reportedly saw their stake balloon to profits of $436,759.61. This staggering gain, alongside corresponding losses for those on the opposing side of the bet, was realised in a matter of hours.
The Rapid Shift in Market Sentiment
Data from the Polymarket site reveals a telling timeline of shifting probabilities in the lead-up to the announcement. At 3pm GMT on 2nd January, the implied chance of Maduro leaving office by month's end stood at just 5.5%.
This figure began to climb sharply:
- 6am, 3rd January: 11%
- 6:30am, 3rd January: 28.5%
- 7:30am, 3rd January: 56.5%
- 9:30am, 3rd January: Nearly 99%
A related wager, 'Maduro in US custody by January 31?', also attracted two prescient trades. These were matched at prices implying just an 11% and 22% chance early on Saturday, before the market price jumped above 0.99.
The Rising Popularity of Prediction Markets
While the concept is not new—a UK site called Flutter.com launched almost 26 years ago—prediction markets are experiencing a surge in the United States. Betting volumes have exploded from under $100 million in early 2024 to over $13 billion, according to a report from crypto analysis firms Dune and Keyrock.
The sector has also gained notable political connections. Donald Trump Jr., the former president's eldest son, has taken advisory roles at two of the best-known prediction market companies, Kalshi and Polymarket.
Polymarket has been contacted for comment on the trades surrounding President Maduro's capture. The incident highlights the growing intersection of geopolitical risk, cryptocurrency, and speculative gambling on future world events.
