Online betting platforms such as Polymarket are directly influencing the global oil market, as traders increasingly use data from prediction markets to inform multimillion-dollar trades, energy traders have warned. Market experts say datafeeds from these platforms are being integrated into algorithms that drive trading in Brent crude futures.
One energy trader noted that Polymarket has become the best predictor of oil market direction since the US-Israel conflict with Iran triggered a global oil crisis. The trader highlighted concerns about insider knowledge, stating, “We’ve seen very large bets going on minutes before a major announcement comes up.”
Ajay Parmar, head of oil trading at ICIS, confirmed the growing influence of prediction markets, saying they “have a long history of strong prediction accuracy” and that traders are increasingly turning to them for market indicators. Tim Skirrow of Energy Aspects added that “any and all data is up for consideration” in modern markets.
Goldman Sachs has included analysis of prediction-market data in its oil market research shared with clients. The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), which trades Brent crude futures, launched a tool providing Polymarket data feeds to help traders “consume crowdsourced probability assessments”.
However, some traders remain sceptical. One analyst said Polymarket “has absolutely made bad calls during this crisis”, while others warn that the platform could amplify the impact of insider betting on global markets.
