Traders placed more than $1bn in suspiciously timed bets on oil futures and prediction markets ahead of major developments in the US-Israel conflict with Iran, prompting calls for regulatory scrutiny. The bets accurately predicted the timing of US airstrikes on Iran on 27 February, the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and a temporary ceasefire announced by Donald Trump on 7 April.
On 7 April, traders spent $950m on oil futures betting that prices would fall, just hours before Trump announced a ceasefire with Iran. Similarly, on 23 March, $580m was placed in oil futures 15 minutes before Trump said talks with Iran were “productive”, leading to a price drop. These trades generated significant profits for those involved.
In prediction markets like Polymarket, 16 accounts each made over $100,000 betting on the exact date of US airstrikes on Iran. A single user, “Magamyman”, made $553,000 by betting that Khamenei would be “removed” moments before his assassination. A crypto-analytics firm identified six “suspected insiders” who made $1.2m on Polymarket after Khamenei’s death.
Lawmakers and experts have raised concerns about potential insider trading, as betting markets now cover news events where non-public information could give traders an edge. “Not only the timing, but the amount of these bets makes it look very likely that someone had insider knowledge,” said Craig Holman of Public Citizen, which filed a complaint with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
However, legal experts note the difficulty of enforcement. “To have a law that can’t really be enforced effectively given the technological limitations, it’s sort of putting the cart before the horse,” said Joshua Mitts, a law professor at Columbia University. The CFTC has not yet commented on any investigations.
