Approximately 5.3 million households in the UK on standard energy tariffs without smart meters have been urged to submit meter readings before Wednesday, July 1, to avoid being charged higher rates for energy already used. The 13% increase in Ofgem's price cap takes effect from that date, raising the average annual dual-fuel bill by £221 to £1,862.
Under the new cap, households paying by direct debit will see electricity charges rise from 24.67p to 26.11p per kilowatt hour (kWh), and gas charges from 5.74p to 7.33p per kWh. The increase is largely attributed to a spike in global wholesale energy prices driven by the Middle East conflict, particularly Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route for oil and gas.
Expert Advice and Government Response
Ben Gallizzi, energy spokesman at Uswitch, said: “There are two crucial things you should add to your to-do list for the coming days – submit a meter reading and get a cheap fixed energy deal. Millions of households should take a moment to read their meter at the end of the month to avoid being overcharged for their energy due to higher prices kicking in from July.”
Minister for energy consumers Martin McCluskey acknowledged concerns: “We know families are deeply concerned about rising energy bills because of a war we did not choose, and we are determined to fight their corner to tackle energy affordability. The action we took at the budget, which has taken an average £150 of costs off energy bills, is now factored into bills for the years to come. We have also expanded the Warm Home Discount scheme, which benefitted around six million households last winter and will remain in place for the rest of the decade. We will continue to monitor the situation ahead of the winter and plan for all contingencies, while doubling down on our mission for clean power to bring down bills for good.”
Outlook for Winter and Debt Concerns
Forecasts from Cornwall Insight suggest bills will remain high through winter, with only a 0.5% drop expected in October compared to July, assuming the US-Iran 60-day ceasefire stabilises wholesale gas markets. However, conflicting reports on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, patchy peace talks, and uncertain infrastructure repair timelines keep prices elevated. Cornwall expects a typical household bill of £1,849 from October.
While Ofgem is updating its definition of a typical consumer from July, adjusting the headline figure to £1,654 due to falling household energy use, Cornwall notes this represents “little change” on a like-for-like basis. The October cap will hit as households switch heating back on, amplifying its financial impact.
Ofgem will announce the next quarterly price cap for October to December on or before August 26. The government's potential winter support remains uncertain amid leadership changes following Sir Keir Starmer's resignation. Chancellor Rachel Reeves earlier indicated she would consider autumn support if energy prices stay high.
Figures from Ofgem show household debt to energy suppliers reached a record £4.79 billion in the three months to March, up 5% from the previous quarter and 15% year-on-year.
