Consumer confidence has seen a significant six-point 'Burnham bounce' – the largest increase since November 2023, according to GfK.
The market research firm said the heatwaves, football success and a new Prime Minister appeared to have 'lifted the mood', albeit the headline figure remaining firmly in negative territory at minus 17.
Economic confidence jumps
Confidence in the country’s general economic situation over the last 12 months jumped by 10 points to minus 39 – five points higher than a year ago – while expectations for the economy over the coming 12 months rose by eight points to minus 28 – one point above last July.
The Major Purchase Index, an indicator of confidence in buying big ticket items, also saw an eight-point increase to minus 12, three points higher than July last year.
Personal finances edge up
Confidence in personal finances over the next year is up three points, dragging the measure into positive territory at one, but one point lower than last July.
Survey timing and outlook
The survey was taken between July 1 and July 14, ahead of the new Prime Minister entering Number 10 on July 20 and making any policy announcements.
Neil Bellamy, consumer insights director at GfK, said: 'Hot on the heels of the summer heatwaves, July has delivered a wave of optimism.'
'The sense of a fresh start following the appointment of a new Prime Minister surely accounts for some of this bounce.'
'There were also hopes at the start of July that the Middle East conflict might stabilise and bring UK fuel prices down.'
'The feel-good factor of the Fifa World Cup will have reinforced sentiment too.'
'However, July’s improved Overall Index Score remains within the narrow range seen since the end of 2023, and it is a decade since the headline score was in positive territory.'
'For the 'Burnham bounce' to be sustainable and boost consumer confidence, it will require consistent delivery by the refreshed UK Government against deep cost-of-living challenges and persistent low economic growth.'
