The US and Iran have exchanged missiles for the first time in weeks, marking a descent into a dreadful and repetitive period of "mission creep" in their conflict. This describes a gradual and unplanned expansion of a mission going well beyond its original goal, which was to eliminate the Iranian nuclear threat, eradicate Iran's missile arsenal, help oppressed Iranians and potentially achieve regime change - none of which have been accomplished.
The previously unthinkable prospect that the war may rumble on for months, even years, is now increasingly likely, with severe implications for the region and even the UK.
Recent exchanges and strategic aims
The US claims it opened fire on Iranian military installations on Larak Island, a strategic point in the disputed Strait of Hormuz, to prevent further mining of the waterway. Iran claims it fired back on a US base in Jordan because the US killed and wounded several people on the island.
However, US Central Command has admitted it was taking out rocket launchers, suggesting it was likely doing so to protect its fleet. This indicates the US military is now simply "mowing the lawn," launching strikes to protect itself and reduce threats as they appear. The danger is that US forces now have to engage Iran merely to defend themselves, and it appears not to be working, at immense and repetitive cost in missiles and in the lives of US and other forces stationed in the region.
Impact on allies and UK security
With little sign of the war ending, junior partners of America, such as the UK, are increasingly endangered by Iran's proxies, who are at risk from revenge strikes. The UK, despite hosting tens of thousands of American troops on bases guarding and flying bombers and fighter jets, can no longer rely on the US as much as it did before.
Before the war, experts suggested America's stockpiles of defensive missiles such as Patriots and Thaad, and offensive weapons such as Tomahawks, were below par. Now they are depleted to a dangerous level, one that could, even without a war, take years to restore to a secure level.
Missile costs and depletion
A brief snapshot of missile costs shows how America, once guardian of western democracies, has expended its weaponry. Before the war, the US had 3,100 offensive Tomahawks but has used more than 1,000, and it would take almost four years to return to that pre-war level. These cost a staggering near £2 million each.
Prior to the conflict, the US had 2,830 defensive Patriots but has fired an estimated 1,400 since the conflict began, in protecting its troops and the surrounding region. It will take more than three years just to get back to the pre-war level, and these cost around almost £3 million a unit.
It is no surprise that Ukraine is now desperately short of US-supplied defensive munitions and vulnerable to ballistic missile attack from Russia. It is vital for the UK's security that Ukraine prevails in its own war, holding back Russian forces from acting against NATO in eastern Europe.
Future outlook
This Iran war mission creep is likely to further deplete US weapons in the coming months, even as President Trump orders manufacturers to increase production at a rapid rate.
Millions of pounds are being expended to shoot down incoming Iranian drones which cost a few thousand pounds - so Iran, although devastated economically, is beating the US in costs.
