Weather forecasting models suggest Brits face some rather chilly days next month. The GFS weather model data shows temperatures will drop well below average across a number of days in the middle of October. Anomaly maps show the country shaded in areas of deep blue – indicating how the mercury will plunge below what can be expected for this time of year.
The maps show one day in particular will be bitterly cold, with midday temperatures possibly dropping under 10C across the entire country on October 13. Highs of just 7C are on the cards in London, South Wales and the Midlands.
Only 14 counties avoid the chill
By 6pm on October 13, the maps show peak temperatures hitting 13C in the far south-west. Only parts of South Wales and southern England are shown as rising into double digits – meaning millions of Brits face an entire day where the mercury won’t rise above 10C.
There are just 14 counties in which the data shows potential highs of 10C or more on October 13. They are all in South Wales or southern England.
UK counties facing 10C or more on October 13
- Essex
- Surrey
- Kent
- Berkshire
- Hampshire
- Wiltshire
- Somerset
- Dorset
- Devon
- Cornwall
- Monmouthshire
- Glamorgan
- Carmarthenshire
- Pembrokeshire
El Nino could bring extreme winter weather
This comes as forecasters have warned this year’s El Nino – expected to be the strongest on record – could bring extreme wintry conditions over the coming months.
The Met Office said: “Through the latter part of the winter, following a peak in El Nino, the stratospheric Polar Vortex can become weaker, leading to an increased chance of Sudden Stratospheric Warming events unfurling, increasing the potential for cold weather.”
Despite what its name suggests, Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) can cause bitterly cold conditions. It is what caused the so-called Beast from the East in 2018, which brought 22 inches of snow to some parts of the country in February and March of that year. Although SSW doesn’t always result in these outcomes, the Met Office says a cold snap “follows more often than not”.
