The UK's fifth heatwave of a record-breaking summer is set to peak on Thursday before cooler air and rain arrive, with maps showing the approach of rain in days. Amber extreme heat warnings remain in force from 9am to midnight on Thursday for London and parts of the South East, East Midlands, East of England, West Midlands and South Yorkshire. Temperatures are expected to climb into the mid-30s Celsius widely, with 37C or 38C possible in places.
Forecasters detail the peak and transition
Met Office chief forecaster Chris Bulmer said high pressure is becoming dominant, with southerly and south-easterly winds drawing hot air from the Continent. He added: “While the peak heat will be more short-lived than recent heatwaves, temperatures widely into the mid-30s Celsius on Thursday bring the potential for impacts for some.”
Deputy chief forecaster David Oliver confirmed Thursday as the peak, with residual warmth lingering in the south and south-east on Friday before cooler air spreads south from the north-west on Saturday. High pressure is then expected to weaken into the start of next week, opening the door to showers or longer spells of rain.
Rain maps show relief for all four nations
GFS model charts from WXCharts illustrate the shift. An instantaneous precipitation map valid for 3pm UTC on Monday August 17 shows a band of rain associated with a low-pressure system tracking across Ireland, Wales, central and southern England, with rates climbing into the higher intensity categories over land.
Accumulated precipitation totals out to 6am UTC on Wednesday August 26 indicate substantial rainfall building across western and northern areas, particularly Scotland and Ireland, with lighter but still notable amounts extending into parts of England and Wales. A mid-period chart for 3am UTC on Tuesday, August 25, further depicts evolving pressure patterns and precipitation signals over the same broad area.
Drought, wildfires and official response
The four nations of the UK are all flagged in the charts for some rainfall in the coming days to weeks, ending the prolonged dry spell that has left nearly three-quarters of England and the whole of Wales in drought. The Environment Agency has described conditions as a “flash drought” after the driest July on record for England and Wales since 1836, combined with high temperatures.
Southern Water has applied for a rare non-domestic drought order covering Hampshire and the Isle of Wight, the first of its kind since 2006, which could restrict non-essential business use and affect supplies for 165,000 people in the Southampton West area.
Wildfires have compounded the pressure. Firefighters responded to 966 incidents across England and Wales this year, including 185 in the first 10 days of August and a record 458 in July. A fire in the New Forest, sparked by a van on the A31 near Ringwood, has burned protected heathland.
Fire Brigades Union general secretary Steve Wright described the situation as a “national emergency,” citing equipment shortages for prolonged wildfire response. The Government has pointed to £97 million in new funding for specialist firefighting kit.
Prime Minister-led emergency COBR meetings have been held to co-ordinate the official response to heat, wildfires and drought. Ministers from Defra, the Home Office and health departments, together with the Environment Agency, are involved. Health Secretary Yvette Cooper urged the public to follow UK Health Security Agency alerts, stay hydrated and check on vulnerable neighbours. Earlier heatwaves in May and June were linked to more than 2,800 excess deaths.
The Met Office notes that only average temperatures for the remainder of August are required for this summer to become the hottest on record, following last year’s mark. While the immediate focus remains on Thursday’s peak heat, the model maps and official guidance point to a clear transition: the extreme warmth is short-lived, and rain is on the way for Scotland, Northern Ireland, England and Wales within days to a fortnight.
