The UK has already experienced four heatwaves this year, and forecasters suggest another 'very warm or hot' spell could be on the horizon before summer ends. May and June saw heat records broken, while two July heatwaves left little respite. After a brief cooldown this week, long-range forecasts indicate a potential return of hot weather.
Forecasters' Predictions
Sky News meteorologist Dr Christopher England said: 'It will be cooler over the next few days, but long-range forecasts suggest that pressure may well build in the south again next week, allowing the return of hot weather. It's far too early for any detail, however, with different forecast models giving very different outcomes, but temperatures are likely to be higher than average for many, and it may well turn hot in the south.'
The Met Office's long-range forecast backs this, adding that the south and east have a 'greater chance of thundery interludes' in the coming days. Despite the storm potential, rainfall is expected to be 'quite variable' and 'relatively little'. The forecast states: 'For the most part, temperatures look to remain above average, especially in the south, and perhaps turning very warm or hot.'
Impact of Extreme Heat
This year's heat has already taken a toll, with over 2,700 excess deaths in May and June alone. Dry conditions have led to drought across the country, and last month was the driest July in England and Wales since records began, sparking wildfires nationwide. Rain is forecast for northern England, Northern Ireland, Wales, and Scotland, but the rest of England is expected to stay dry.
What Defines a Heatwave?
According to the Met Office, 'a heatwave is an extended period of hot weather relative to the expected conditions of the area at that time of year,' possibly accompanied by high humidity. To officially qualify, a location must record 'a period of at least three consecutive days with daily maximum temperatures meeting or exceeding the heatwave temperature threshold.' This threshold varies, from 28C in London and surrounding counties to as low as 25C in typically cooler areas. Whether the upcoming warm spell will meet these criteria remains to be seen.
