Ryanair has revised its 2027 passenger growth forecast downward, reducing its target from 216 million to 214 million travellers. The airline attributed the change to elevated unhedged fuel prices and cautioned that persistently high oil costs could lead to increased fares across the short-haul aviation market.
Strategic reduction in winter schedule
In light of high unhedged oil prices and with jet fuel currently trading at $140 a barrel, “it is sensible to strategically reduce the group’s exposure to unhedged jet fuel during the unprofitable winter schedule (from Nov to Mar),” the carrier said. It added: “Ryanair’s FY (full year) traffic target is therefore cut from 216 million to 214 million passengers to reduce our exposure to unhedged oil this winter.”
The airline has also warned that competitors may have to cancel flights or could even not "survive" this winter due to fuel costs.
Expected impact on losses and fares
The airline said the reduction is expected to lower its winter 2026 losses by approximately £60 million to £86 million.
The airline also cautioned that, should oil prices remain elevated through summer 2027, short-haul ticket prices are likely to rise significantly. It said higher fuel costs would inevitably be reflected in fares, particularly as some rival airlines with less extensive fuel hedging may struggle to sustain capacity levels or even remain viable during the winter season.
August traffic and fuel hedging
Separately, Ryanair reported carrying 22.2 million passengers in August, representing a 6% increase compared with the same month a year earlier.
Looking ahead, the carrier said it expects passenger traffic between November and March to remain broadly unchanged from current levels.
According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), jet fuel prices have climbed sharply, rising 8.2% compared with the previous month to approximately US$156 per barrel and standing 74.2% higher than a year ago.
Despite this increase, Ryanair said it remains well positioned to maintain profitability, noting that around 80% of its projected 2027 fuel requirements have been hedged at US$67 per barrel, providing significant protection against further fuel price volatility.
