The Met Office has issued a significant UK snow update as El Niño continues to 'strengthen rapidly', with its peak expected in the coming weeks.
An El Niño event, which occurs every two to seven years, is a natural climate phenomenon characterised by the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and east-equatorial Pacific Ocean. Over the past few weeks, numerous experts have been sounding the alarm ahead of its major impact predicted for late 2026.
Polar vortex and cold air
El Niño 'tends to promote the breakdown of the polar vortex, especially in late winter', according to a research paper previously published by the US government's NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory.
The polar vortex is a band of powerful westerly winds that encircle the North Pole high in the stratosphere, trapping bitterly cold air near the Arctic. However, when the vortex weakens or becomes disrupted, it turns "wavy" and allows cold air to seep southward into mid-latitude regions like North America and Europe, reports the Manchester Evening News.
Should this occur, the UK would likely be hit with extremely windy conditions, with some experts suggesting it could bring cold weather and snowfall to the UK in the coming months. Following a summer that broke records for heat, many are now wondering if we're in for a white Christmas.
Christmas snow chances
A spokesperson for the Met Office has stated that "for most parts of the United Kingdom, Christmas is only at the beginning of the period when it's likely to snow", explaining: "We are more likely to see snow in January and February than in December. With snow actually settling on the ground (snow lying) an average of three days in December, compared to 3.3 days in January, 3.4 days in February and 1.9 days in March (1991 - 2020 long-term averaging period)."
In its most recent update, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) announced that sea-surface temperatures are predicted to reach "record levels" in the central and eastern tropical Pacific during the last three months of the year, indicating the "strengthening of the El Nino event".
WMO warning
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said: "El Niño is firmly established and strengthening rapidly. WMO forecasts indicate a near-100 per cent likelihood that it will persist through February 2027, potentially being one of the strongest since at least 1950."
According to Ms Saulo, this consensus was reached by 13 national and international centres. The prediction is based on the real-time exchange of data from ocean buoys, satellites and radiosondes.
The seasonal average sea-surface temperature anomaly is predicted to hit around +3.7C, peaking in December. This would surpass the previous record, when an average of +2.6C was noted between November 2015 and January 2016.
In the meantime, the Met Office has pointed out that a number of severe cold snaps and heavy snowfall events have been linked to the surface effects of sudden stratospheric warmings. These include the notorious bouts of snowfall in 2009, 2010 and 2013, as well as the "Beast from the East" in 2018.
For those who might not remember, the "Big Freeze of 2010" coincided with an El Nino event. It was the chilliest winter in three decades at that point.
As for the "Beast from the East", it brought freezing temperatures and substantial snowfall in late February, which lingered into early March.
