The Met Office has issued its October forecast, indicating there are currently "no strong signals for widespread or disruptive snowfall across the UK during October". Temperatures are still expected to drop in the coming days, falling to as low as 10C in the daytime, which is below the October average and a marked change from the balmy conditions experienced this week.
Warm start to the week
A high of 26.3C was recorded in Cambridge on Wednesday. Holbeach in Lincolnshire saw the mercury reach 25.7C, while 24.9C was noted near Heathrow Airport in west London. Most of the country enjoyed sunny conditions, but forecasters say the unseasonal warmth will not last.
Brief cold snaps have not been entirely ruled out, with the higher reaches of Scotland considered the most probable locations to experience snow should wintry conditions take hold.
What the Met Office says
A spokesperson said: "The Met Office's latest outlook indicates a greater likelihood of temperatures being above average overall during the month, although this does not rule out the possibility of brief colder spells. Current guidance suggests the risk of impacts typically associated with early-season cold weather, such as widespread frost, ice or snowfall, is lower than normal."
For snow to reach lower levels, far more exceptional conditions would be required, with a prolonged blast of Arctic air necessary to push wintry weather further across the country. The spokesperson added: "Snow at lower levels would generally require a more sustained spell of unusually cold air moving across the UK, combined with sufficient moisture to produce precipitation."
Rain more likely than snow
The Met Office's long-range forecast says an unsettled pattern is deemed most probable during the middle of this month, with showers or prolonged spells of rain sweeping in from the Atlantic. The heaviest rainfall and occasionally strongest winds are anticipated to be more prevalent across the west and northwest, while the south and east should enjoy comparatively drier conditions.
A predominantly westerly weather pattern would help keep temperatures "close to or a little above average overall". The Met Office also noted that the time of year itself makes widespread snowfall less likely. A spokesperson said: "October snowfall is relatively uncommon away from high ground because sea and land temperatures are typically still comparatively warm following the summer months. As a result, any early-season snow is usually limited in extent and duration."
While the overall picture points to temperatures around or above average, colder snaps cannot be ruled out during October.
