The Met Office has identified 22 regions which will experience heavy rainfall this weekend, marking an abrupt end to the latest hot spell. A band of low pressure is set to sweep eastwards across the country, also sending temperatures plunging. The mercury hit 28.6°C in Pershore, Worcestershire, on Monday, but 16°C or 17°C is more likely by Sunday lunchtime.
Where the heaviest rain will fall
The downpours will be heaviest across parts of northern England during the daytime on Sunday, then linger across the East of England during Sunday evening. Elsewhere, showers are likely, including across the Midlands. The 22 areas expected to see heavy rain this Sunday are:
- England: Cornwall, Devon, Somerset, Wiltshire, Hampshire, Oxfordshire, Buckinghamshire, Essex, Hertfordshire, Kent, East Sussex, Warwickshire, Lincolnshire
- Northern Ireland: County Antrim, County Down, Derry
- Scotland: Scottish Borders, Stirling, Moray
- Wales: Conwy, Gwynedd, Ceredigion
Climate context and outlook
It has been a particularly dry July and June, so the rain will be a welcome relief for many. More than 18 million people are set to be affected by a hosepipe ban this week. Mike Kendon, Met Office climate information scientist, said: "2025 was the UK’s warmest year on record, the sixth time this record has been broken in the 21st Century so far. The last four years are all in the top five warmest years. With warming at around 0.25°C per decade since the 1980s, it seems likely this record will be broken again in a matter of years."
The unsettled period will continue into next week. Rain is anticipated on Monday, with the heaviest burst likely across northwest Scotland. Temperatures are not expected to reach balmy levels seen this week or last week. In its long-range forecast, the Met Office stated: "A changeable period is likely overall, with many areas likely to see a mixture of bright or sunny spells and some rain at times. Northwestern areas are more likely to see the focus of rainfall, but southeastern areas should also see some showers. Confidence becomes lower as we approach the turn of the month, but there are hints that high pressure could return for a time, which would mean dry conditions resuming, especially in the south. Winds will be mostly light or moderate, but occasionally fresh or strong around some coasts, mainly in the north. Temperatures will be near or above normal, warmest in the south, and perhaps becoming very warm again by the start of August."
