The Met Office has said an “erratic vortex” to the south of the UK could bring rain to parts of the country from Tuesday, while BBC Weather has warned that “stormy” conditions could develop by the end of next week.
Met Office meteorologist Aidan McGivern described the vortex as a “swirl in the winds at the height of the jet stream”. Although high pressure is expected to dominate across much of the country at the start of next week, the vortex is causing “uncertainty” in the forecast.
What is causing the uncertainty?
Mr McGivern explained: “One big cause for uncertainty into next week is this upper vortex, this area of low pressure cut off from the main jet stream… When these happen, they can move erratically. They’re a bit harder to predict.”
He added: “As a result, predicting exactly where this upper vortex is going to be, and where the main thrust of high pressure will end up, well those are the two sources of uncertainty throughout most of next week.”
The vortex is expected to sit to the south of the UK and send bands of rain into south-western areas from Tuesday, although it remains unclear how heavy this rain will be. Most parts of the UK are expected to be “dry with high pressure nearby” at the start of next week.
What do the weather models show?
Different weather models show different outcomes as a result of the uncertainty. By Friday, the models suggest Atlantic weather will “break through”, potentially bringing significant rainfall. The models vary in exactly how long the dry weather will remain before the Atlantic systems arrive.
BBC Weather forecast for next week
BBC Weather’s forecast paints a similar picture, stating that “stormy” conditions could hit the UK by the end of next week.
“The latest forecast data increasingly points towards a change in the weather pattern as we head into the new week,” it says. “High pressure is expected to retreat, allowing Atlantic low-pressure systems bearing rain, wind and milder air to move in as the jet stream strengthens.”
It adds that some of the developing low-pressure systems could “become particularly deep”, meaning some “very wet and windy conditions” are on the cards, along with the potential for “stormy weather towards the end of the week and into the weekend”.
