The Met Office has issued a long-range forecast predicting “above average” temperatures and “changeable” weather patterns throughout late October and early November, as an unusually strong “Godzilla” El Niño develops.
This follows one of the warmest Septembers since records began in 1884. Forecasters expect the spike in heat to be accompanied by a period of wetter, stormier weather as a result of the strong El Niño this year.
Stormier autumn and colder winter ahead
Met Office climate spokesman Grahame Madge said: “There are known general teleconnections between El Niño and UK weather in autumn and winter. These can include a stormier autumn and a colder end to winter.”
The winters of 2015 and 2016, which also coincided with a strong El Niño, brought a series of major storms and what experts described as some of the worst flooding on record.
Impact on the polar vortex
The unusually warm spell precedes what experts have dubbed a “Godzilla” El Niño event, expected to strike the UK through the winter months. The natural climate phenomenon, characterised by a warming of the Pacific Ocean, could be one of the worst on record, causing a number of adverse weather effects.
A research paper published by the US government's NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory concluded that El Niño "tends to promote the breakdown of the polar vortex, especially in late winter". A weakened or disrupted vortex becomes "wavy" and allows cold air to spill southward into North America and Europe, increasing the likelihood of extremely cold, windy and snowy conditions in the UK over the winter months.
Advice for households
Ahead of this extreme weather phenomenon, British Gas has issued advice to its customers on how to prepare, including tips on gathering essential supplies. The energy provider said people should have at least three days’ worth of food and essentials stockpiled, and that emergency supplies should include medicines, drinking water, non-perishable food and snacks, and extra blankets.
