Holidaymakers face renewed travel stress in summer 2026, with potential flight cancellations due to fuel shortages and long queues at EU borders caused by the new entry-exit system (EES). The legacy of Brexit means longer checks for Britons and most non-EU nationals entering Europe, while the US-Israel conflict with Iran has raised fears of jet fuel supply disruptions.
The EU's EES, which requires biometric data from visitors, missed its 10 April full implementation deadline, leaving confusion over its status. Meanwhile, warnings from the International Energy Agency (IEA) that Europe has only six weeks of jet fuel supply have heightened anxiety. IEA executive director Fatih Birol said flight cancellations would occur if Middle East oil supplies are not restored soon.
Hopes rose after Iran's foreign minister stated the Strait of Hormuz would be fully open during a 10-day ceasefire in Lebanon, but the situation remains fragile. Airlines UK insists British carriers are not currently seeing disruption, thanks to diverse supply sources, but they are lobbying for contingency measures such as relaxing airport slot rules.
EasyJet CEO Kenton Jarvis expressed no concerns about fuel supply, dismissing rival Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary's warning of up to 10% cancellations as speculation. However, transport analysts like Andrew Lobbenberg of Barclays doubt airlines are fully transparent, predicting forced cuts in May and June evolving into voluntary cuts later due to high fuel prices.
Energy consultant Isabelle Gilks of Wood Mackenzie noted Europe can still source jet fuel from the US, but warned that prolonged disruption could lead to higher fares and route cuts rather than mass groundings. Short-haul low-cost carriers are expected to be most affected, with airlines likely to manage demand by reducing weaker routes and frequencies.
