BBC Weather is forecasting thundery showers from Friday, August 28, with rain expected in Notting Hill until the early hours of Saturday morning. Saturday is expected to see highs of around 22C - significantly cooler than the blistering temperatures of this summer so far - and light rain showers from around 2pm.
Forecast for Family Day and Bank Holiday Monday
Forecasters are predicting a wash-out when celebrations ramp up on Notting Hill Carnival's Family Day on Sunday. Heavy rain is expected from 1pm with highs of 20C, with thunderstorms potentially moving across the area around 5pm. Thunderstorms are predicted into the night, before returning early on Monday afternoon.
The bank holiday Monday is expected to see highs of 22C, with the showers not expected to subside until 7pm - coincidentally the time that carnival closes its doors.
Alternative Outlook and Historical Context
Accuweather has a brighter outlook for the street festival, predicting dry spells and only a 5% chance of rain on Sunday and 2% chance of rain on Monday. If BBC Weather's forecast becomes a reality, it could hinder the planned celebrations, given the entire festival takes place on the streets of Notting Hill. The same forecast applies to the rest of London, throwing many bank holiday weekend plans potentially into jeopardy.
Bad weather has never historically proved a problem for the carnival and revellers have taken to dancing in the streets no matter what the forecast. A rainstorm in 2018 saw the carnival go ahead as planned despite heavy rain and similarly in 2014 and 2015.
Organiser Advice
On its official website, organisers have issued advice for all weather conditions, including heavy rain, advising carnival-goers to think about "waterproof coats and shoes." After one of London's hottest summers on record, extreme heat seemed the more likely possibility for the three-day affair, with organisers also warning of heatstroke symptoms. "If it's going to be hot, wear a hat, apply sunscreen, wear loose clothes and drink plenty of water," the website reads. Notting Hill Carnival Ltd has been contacted for comment.
