The UK is bracing for its fifth heatwave of the year, with temperatures expected to reach a blistering 36C in parts of East Anglia and south-east England by Thursday. The Met Office has issued yellow heat health alerts that came into effect at 9am on Saturday and will remain until 9pm on Tuesday, warning that the sweltering conditions could affect public health and add strain on healthcare services.
Temperature forecast
Temperatures are set to rise steadily over the weekend, leading into heatwave conditions next week. On Saturday, the mercury could hit 30C, rising into the low 30s in southern and south-east England on Sunday. By Tuesday, parts of England and Wales could see up to 30C, with 32C to 34C expected by Wednesday, and the hottest temperatures currently anticipated for Thursday.
Weather experts predict a north-south divide over the weekend, with Scotland and Northern Ireland expected to experience heavy rain, while England and Wales enjoy predominantly dry, sunny, and increasingly warm conditions.
Health warnings and impact
The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has issued yellow heat health warnings for the East Midlands, West Midlands, South East, South West, East of England, Yorkshire and the Humber, and London. The alerts highlight the potential health risks as the heatwave intensifies.
This year has already seen two unprecedented heatwaves in May and June, resulting in over 2,800 excess deaths, followed by two more in July that exacerbated drought conditions and sparked wildfires. The highest temperature recorded this year was 38C in Lingwood, Norfolk, on June 28.
Record-breaking temperatures
So far, there have been 33 days where temperatures have exceeded 30C somewhere in the UK, edging close to the record of 34 days set in 1995 – a record that is likely to be shattered next week.
In recent weeks, wildfires have erupted across the UK, including large fires at Dunwich Heath in Suffolk, Headon Warren on the Isle of Wight, Llanwonno in the Rhondda Valleys, South Wales, and the Cairngorms National Park in Scotland. According to the Fire Severity Index, fires are expected to reach exceptionally severe levels on Sunday across almost all of the east and south-east of England, with 'exceptional' being the highest ranking.
Drought conditions worsen
On Friday, the Environment Agency reported that reservoir storage in England has fallen to 69%, down from 72% a week ago and nearly 12 percentage points below the long-term average for this time of year. Storage was at 85% at the end of June but has been steadily declining.
Five reservoirs are now categorised as having 'exceptionally low' water levels: Blagdon in Somerset (54% full), Clywedog in Powys (62%), the Dove group of reservoirs in Derbyshire (74%), Hanningfield in Essex (60%), and Wimbleball in Somerset (50%).
Last month was the driest July for England and Wales since records began in 1836, with 19 counties across England recording effectively no rainfall – 1mm or less – throughout the entire month, according to provisional figures from the Met Office.
