Rain could finally arrive in the UK next week, bringing some relief from the ongoing heatwave, but it may also trigger flash flooding in drought-stricken areas, according to forecasters.
Heatwave and drought conditions
The UK has experienced back-to-back heatwaves during spring and summer, leaving parks and fields bone-dry. The fifth heatwave of the season is currently gripping parts of England and Wales, with temperatures reaching 38°C. Drought conditions have been officially declared in more than two-thirds of England following record-dry July and scant rain for over a month.
Rain expected next week
Jim Dale, founder of the British Weather Services, told Metro that the UK is likely to 'get a break' from the heat at the turn of next week. Temperatures will start 'leaking away' from tomorrow, although the South East, East Anglia and London could still see 35°C, with around 30°C early next week.
Jim said: 'Then we really start cooling down quite markedly after Tuesday, and there might be some rain around Tuesday. That is your first taster.'
'There will definitely be rain in the north and the west, and it will start to move into the South East, where it is most barren.'
Flash flood risk
After the rain, the weather is set to turn fresher, with what Jim described as 'what you might call a traditional summer with stop and start sunshine and showers.' He said the gradual rain will 'alleviate some of the difficulties like dust and wildfire problems.'
However, heavy downpours following prolonged drought could lead to flash flooding. The ground in the south has become hard, making it difficult to absorb sudden water. Jim warned: 'A big downpour is going to sit on the surface, which is when you could get flash flooding.'
After the 1976 record heatwave, there were 'widespread floods' due to prolonged rain and thunderstorms, which could be repeated in some parts of the UK this summer, Jim said.
Drought recovery and future heatwaves
Jim noted that the drought situation 'will not be alleviated very easily,' adding: 'It's going to take weeks of sustained rain to get us back to where we need to, and the damage has been done – economic damage and damage to the crops.'
As for a possible sixth heatwave, Jim predicts that once temperatures drop next week, 'that could be it as far as major temperatures are concerned.' He added: 'I can't at the moment see a sixth heatwave.'
Extreme weather, including severe heatwaves lasting longer, is set to become the new norm, exacerbated by climate change and fossil fuel consumption.
