The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecast a below-average Atlantic hurricane season for 2026, but an above-average season in the eastern Pacific. The contrasting predictions are attributed to a strong El Niño climate pattern, which typically suppresses hurricane formation in the Atlantic while enhancing conditions in the Pacific.
NOAA predicts 9 to 14 hurricanes in the eastern Pacific, including 5 to 9 major hurricanes. In contrast, the Atlantic is expected to see only 3 to 6 hurricanes, with 1 to 3 becoming major. Despite the calmer outlook, officials warned that even a single Category 5 storm could cause catastrophic damage if it makes landfall.
Dr. Neil Jacobs, NOAA’s administrator, emphasised that below-average seasons do not guarantee safety, noting that Category 5 hurricanes have struck the US during such periods. Record-warm ocean temperatures linked to climate change are contributing to rapid intensification, with storms potentially becoming major hurricanes in just a few days.
Ken Graham, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service, urged Americans to prepare early by stocking up on essential supplies. The last below-average Atlantic forecast was in 2015. Last year’s Atlantic season was notably quiet due to a high-pressure system steering storms away from the coast.
The eastern Pacific season, which began on May 15, poses risks to Hawaii and the US West Coast. While direct hurricane hits on Hawaii are rare, recent storms have caused deadly flooding and wind damage. NOAA’s forecast serves as a reminder to remain vigilant regardless of seasonal predictions.
