The Met Office has warned that even an autumn deluge may not guarantee a reversal of the drought conditions affecting most of Britain. The government has warned conditions could last until October after officials declared 71.3 per cent of England is now in drought, following the nation's driest six months since 1976.
Drought declared across most of England
Last week, the East Midlands, Lincolnshire, Northamptonshire, Kent and Sussex moved into drought status, joining half of England and the whole of Wales. Rainfall totals for July ranged from 26 per cent of the expected average for North West England to as little as 1 per cent in the South East. Parts of Hampshire, the Isle of Wight and West Sussex have not had a single drop for 59 days.
Over the next two days, there could be relief for many, with rain expected for the first time in weeks. Will Lang, the organisation's chief meteorologist, says although rain is on its way, there remains a question mark over how much would fall.
Rain forecast but amounts uncertain
Asked whether the Met Office expected rainfall, Mr Lang said: “Having seen virtually no rainfall in southern parts of the UK, we will see some rainfall. How much is the question. The answer is probably not too much compared with our forecast. It’s looking like the overall amount of rain will still be below normal for the time of year.”
He continued: “Looking forward into the autumn, though, that’s when we’d normally see a change of conditions. We do see wetter and windier conditions and we will see more rainfall. Again, ‘how much?’ is the question – and whether that’s enough to alleviate things like the current drought problems, we don’t know yet.”
Prime Minister visits wildfire scene
Mr Lang spoke to the Press Association following a visit to the Met Office in Exeter, Devon, by Prime Minister Andy Burnham, who met apprentices and staff at the centre. On Friday, Mr Burnham was at the scene of a wildfire in Stourbridge in the West Midlands where 54 people have been treated by paramedics, including 19 who were admitted to hospital.
This morning, the Prince of Wales thanked the emergency services battling wildfires across the country in a personal statement, saying: “Our thoughts are with everyone affected, particularly those who have lost their homes, and with those working tirelessly to protect communities, homes and the countryside.”
El Nino could bring wet autumn
The Prime Minister told broadcasters: “We might be in for a wet autumn and winter straight after this, because of El Nino and some of the issues there, which was reported to Cobra. So, after fire could come floods. We have to face up to the changing climate. I think we need a different debate about that. There’s no point denying where we are – we need to face up to it, we need more clean energy, we need to see that transition accelerate. Those are all of the issues that, you know, are right now in discussion.”
El Nino is declared when sea temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific rise 0.5C above the long-term average. The Met Office’s Professor Adam Scaife previously said that this year’s El Nino will likely cause “a temporary spike in global annual temperature with the residual heat potentially making next year the hottest in the global series from 1850”.
Chris Hinchliff, the Labour MP for North East Hertfordshire, last week wrote to Mr Burnham urging him to take “urgent action” to prepare for the hotter weather. “Climate breakdown is the greatest threat to our way of life since the Second World War,” he wrote in his letter. “If we do not prepare in the short window available to us, the looming El Nino will compound these challenges and inflict devastating consequences on our already struggling country.”
Mr Hinchliff called for a national “nature restoration workforce” to plant trees and restore wetland to bolster water storage, a review of how resilient national infrastructure is in the face of heat, and an acceleration of “food security planning, including measures to support domestic food production, particularly at a local, community scale”.
Asked what sort of effects El Nino might have on the country’s weather, Mr Lang replied: “El Nino can start to have an effect on the UK winter. So, one of the things it can do is give a little bit of a boost to rainfall in the latter part of the autumn and as we head into early winter. We’re not sure that that will happen at this stage, but it’s something that can happen in El Nino conditions. So, that’s one thing we’re looking out for in our forecasts and our models. Beyond that, it’s really too early to tell.”
