Snow has arrived in time for the start of Australia's ski season, but experts warn that an El Niño event may bring drier and warmer conditions, jeopardising snow cover. The Bureau of Meteorology's long-range forecast suggests below-average snowfall for alpine regions, with above-average maximum and minimum temperatures expected.
Senior forecaster Jonathan How described the combination of dry and warm outlook with El Niño as “a bad combination” for deep snow cover. He noted that while snow was falling this week ahead of the season opening, daytime temperatures of up to 10°C are predicted for next week, meaning the snow may not persist.
Climate scientists have long predicted that Australia's alpine areas will warm over the coming decades. A study using the SkiSim2 model projected that average resort season length could drop by 15% to 17% by 2030, depending on greenhouse gas emissions. Observations already show declining snow depths.
Resorts rely on snowmaking to supplement natural snowfall, but warmer conditions make this more difficult. Ruby Olsson of the Australian National University emphasised that reducing emissions is crucial for cost-effective adaptation. Dr Andrew Watkins, a former climate prediction head at the bureau, noted that skiers are seeing fewer regular top-ups and more big dumps, with warm rain events ending the season earlier.
Despite the challenges, some silver linings exist: El Niño can bring drier air and cooler nights, which are favourable for snowmaking. Skiers are advised to be ready to respond to winter storms when they occur. Professional skier Mia Rennie observed a drastic drop in snowfall over the past decade, both in Australia and globally.
