Manchester United's 12th-place Premier League position after five games masks underlying statistics that could influence manager Michael Carrick's future at Old Trafford. Chief executive Omar Berrada and director of football Jason Wilcox will examine whether the numbers align with the visual evidence on the pitch.
Data paints brighter picture than league table
The traditional belief that the league table never lies has become increasingly difficult to defend as data analytics have grown more central to football. After merely five fixtures, the table contains so many inaccuracies it's scarcely worth consulting, according to some figures within the sport who deliberately avoid examining it until at least 10 matches have been completed.
Numerous variables can paint a misleading picture in the early stages of the season, particularly after a World Cup summer. Manchester United will undoubtedly be praying that proves accurate, with Carrick's side collecting just five points from five outings at the campaign's first three-week international break.
Sansoni's analytics could define Carrick's fate
Under INEOS ownership, United have made substantial commitments to a data and AI division overseen by former Mercedes F1 analyst Michael Sansoni. The University of Southampton graduate could be key to United crafting a narrative of bad luck and reinforcing the notion that patience with Carrick will ultimately pay dividends.
While the 45-year-old isn't battling for his position quite yet, the mounting pressure this campaign has been undeniable, particularly externally. Carrick has a valid point when he highlights how marginal details have worked against United this term, including Everton scoring two spectacular goals and a Manchester City winner that shouldn't have counted.
Underlying numbers offer encouragement
Despite sitting 10 points adrift of Manchester City already, the statistics paint a more encouraging picture. No team in the Premier League has registered more touches in the opposition box than United's 182 thus far this season, and they sit second for accurate passes too, indicating Carrick's mantra of retaining possession is starting to take hold.
They also rank second for shots on target this campaign, yet a conversion rate of 7.1% pales in comparison with the sides around them in Brighton (16.8%), City (19.1%) and Chelsea (13.9%). Regarding expected goals (xG), United sit fourth with 9.9, despite having found the net just eight times. They possess an xG difference of 3.3 when, in actuality, it stands at zero, implying they have scored fewer and conceded more than the metrics suggest they ought to have.
Carrick will be hoping these figures can even themselves out. As the campaign unfolds, the genuine league position typically moves closer to mirroring what the data indicates. That is probably the assessment emerging from those analysing the figures within Old Trafford's data lab.
The worry is that the encouraging statistical indicators will start to fade as pressure intensifies and morale drops, but for the time being, there remains grounds for optimism at United and confidence in Carrick. And keeping Sansoni and the data team on side is key for Carrick keeping his job.
