A University of Edinburgh study has found that AI-generated bots accounted for more than three quarters of responses to a Government consultation on plans to restrict the sale of disposable vapes, in what researchers describe as a co-ordinated campaign to manipulate the results.
The study analysed 118,756 responses to a consultation held in October 2023 for the Tobacco and Vapes Act. The Department of Health and Social Care identified 76% - more than 90,000 - as fraudulent using bot-detection methods. Almost all bot-generated responses targeted multiple choice questions opposing plans to restrict sales of disposable vapes, and the same number reported learning of the consultation on social media.
First documented case of automated interference
Researchers believe this is the first instance of large-scale, automated interference in a formal, public health consultation. After excluding the bot responses, some 79.6% of valid responses supported plans around disposable vapes.
The researchers stated: "This appears to be the first documented instance of large-scale, automated interference in a formal, public health policy consultation. The scale and directional consistency of bot responses suggest a co-ordinated campaign, consistent with prior evidence of tobacco industry efforts to manipulate public consultations through mass co-ordinated submissions."
They added that it is "not possible to ascertain the commercial origins of such a campaign", but highlighted that "transnational tobacco companies have sought to swamp earlier public consultations with favourable responses, using mass recruitment campaigns and postcard submissions".
Warnings about future risks
Experts warned that bolstering detection capacity and safeguards "will be essential" as "bot sophistication increases". They said: "While in this instance these submissions were screened and excluded, developments in bots require a constant evolution of screening tools, and such campaigns often take place with little or no public awareness, particularly in areas such as vaping regulation, which remains an active topic of policy discussion in many geographic contexts."
They also noted that consultations at other levels, or in other contexts where resources are more restricted and there is a lack of capacity to screen such findings, may be at greater risk of influence.
Government response and legislation
A Department of Health and Social Care spokesperson said: "We always have robust controls in place to prevent the manipulation of our public consultations and those controls worked effectively in this case. As a result, the fake responses were removed and the consultation helped inform the landmark action we are taking to create a smoke-free generation. We will remain alert to interference of this kind in future consultation processes and we will not be deterred from doing what is necessary to promote healthier living."
The Tobacco and Vapes Act gained Royal Assent in April, making it illegal to ever sell tobacco products to anyone born on or after January 1 2009. It also included a ban on the sale of disposable vapes - which came into effect in June last year - as well as measures to restrict the flavours and marketing of e-cigarettes. The aim was to create a smoke-free generation.
Speaking at the time, the then-Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, Wes Streeting, said: "This legislation marks a turning point for the nation’s health. By ending the cycle of tobacco addiction for future generations, we are taking one of the boldest steps in decades to prevent illness before it even begins. For too long, smoking has claimed lives, widened inequalities and placed avoidable pressure on our health services. This law changes that trajectory - protecting young people from ever starting, while backing current smokers with the support they need to quit for good. A smoke-free generation is now within reach, and this government is determined to deliver a healthier, fairer future for everyone."
