Wales face a tough opener against Japan in the Nations Championship, and former captain Gwyn Jones believes the team must keep the ball and defend better this autumn. Writing for WalesOnline, the S4C commentator says the days of defending their way to respectability are numbered.
Not so long ago, this was a game Wales expected to win comfortably. Those days have gone. Wales are struggling and Japan are well coached and increasingly competitive. They play with pace, move the ball smartly and take risks without blinking. The way the international game is developing suits them nicely.
Wales' defensive struggles
Wales will remember Cardiff a year ago. They scraped home 24-23 with a last-gasp penalty. Japan had three yellow cards, and Wales still had to work exceptionally hard. They made 226 tackles to Japan's 128. That is a lot of time without the ball.
That is the problem, because World Rugby has made its priorities plain. It wants the game safer, faster and more continuous, with a meaningful contest still at breakdown and set piece. More ball in play. Quicker ruck ball. More tries. The casual viewer is the target, and it is working. Tries per match have risen from six to eight in two years.
The message is simple: the ball is where the points are. Teams that keep it score. Teams that chase it get worn down. Defending for long periods is now perilous. Quick ball makes the defensive line hard to organise. Fatigue bites, then the wall breaks. The side without possession also gives away more penalties. Being happy to live without the ball is no longer a plan.
Selection calls and the one wrong pick
Jackaling is harder too. It isn't dead, because isolated carriers will always present a chance. But committing players to the breakdown is riskier when referees want quick ball. Lose the contest and you may wreck your own line as well. Staying on your feet and defending with speed may beat gambling on turnovers.
That shapes some of Steve Tandy's selection. Alex Mann is an interesting pick in the back row. He is a good lineout option, lean, mobile and an effective jackaler. He was a bolter when first chosen, but he has made an impact whenever given the chance. He is fiery, and that is his point of difference.
Two big centres show Tandy is following where the game is going. If Wales are to keep the ball, they need men who carry it through the middle. Powerful centres get over the gain line, secure possession and let the next phase develop. There is a defensive angle too. With Sam Costelow at outside-half and Dan Edwards likely to follow, Wales have smallish fly-halves. Wales have conceded too many tries under Tandy, and that must improve.
But one player should be in the matchday squad: Taine Basham. Basham is starting to look like Wales's answer to England's Ben Earl, with a hint of Andre Esterhuizen too. He is a hybrid with the athleticism, pace and carrying power to offer something beyond his nominal position. His URC form has been outstanding. Twenty-four defenders beaten. Seventh for metres gained. Seventh for clean breaks. Fourth for carries.
Japan opener a must-win
Japan is the opener of the Nations Championship, and realistically one Wales must win. New Zealand and Australia are far sterner tests. Last autumn Wales had just 33% possession against the All Blacks, little wonder they scored 50 points.
So the question isn't just whether Wales can tackle. It is whether they can hold the ball. Wales must carry more, keep more and find players who can create when the game turns untidy. Wales to win? Yes, but it's a tricky opener. Wales must be on their mettle from the start.
