Jamie Carragher has cast doubt on Harry Kane's chances of winning the Ballon d'Or this year, despite the England striker scoring 72 goals this season for Bayern Munich and England. Writing in The Telegraph, Carragher argued that while Kane is the most deserving candidate based on individual performance, the award is likely to go to the star player of the World Cup-winning nation.
Carragher's Assessment of Contenders
Carragher stated: "If the vote for the Ballon d'Or was being held right now, Kane would be the worthy winner, his heroics for England against DR Congo absorbing his 72nd goal of this season. Only Lionel Messi has recently hit those kinds of numbers. Not even Cristiano Ronaldo was so prolific in one campaign." However, he added: "Based on the past 12 months, Kane should win the Ballon d'Or. Unfortunately, he probably won't because in a World Cup year, it is bound to go to the star player of the winning nation."
Carragher predicted that if Argentina retain the World Cup, Messi will win the Ballon d'Or. If France wins, either Kylian Mbappe or Michael Olise could take the honour. He noted that despite Mbappe's frustrating club season, his World Cup displays would overshadow that. Ousmane Dembele was also mentioned as a potential contender after another strong season.
Historical Context of Ballon d'Or and World Cup
Carragher's view is supported by recent history, though not without exceptions. Lionel Messi won the Ballon d'Or in 2023 after leading Argentina to World Cup glory, but that was the first time in 17 years that a World Cup winner claimed the award, since Fabio Cannavaro in 2006. Before that, Zinedine Zidane (1998) and Ronaldo (2002) also won as world champions. However, Luka Modric lost the 2018 final but still won the Ballon d'Or, while Antoine Griezmann and Mbappe finished third and fourth respectively despite France winning the World Cup.
Kane's goal tally of 72 this season is extraordinary, placing him alongside Messi and ahead of prime Cristiano Ronaldo. He scored twice for England in their round of 32 match against DR Congo, taking his World Cup total to five goals. Despite this, Carragher believes England's recent performances do not support a World Cup victory, saying: "Much as I want to believe England can still win it, there is nothing to support that opinion, especially after recent performances."
Kane's Season and World Cup Performance
Kane's 72 goals this season include his club form for Bayern Munich and his international exploits. He is currently competing for the Golden Boot at the World Cup. Carragher acknowledged Kane's output: "Kane's goal output is beyond them all. He is performing at the same level as France's best and Messi, going toe-to-toe in the Golden Boot race."
Despite Carragher's doubts, Kane remains among the favourites for the Ballon d'Or, with his chances heavily dependent on England's World Cup progress. The award will be decided later this year.
