The story of a child wanting to play football elsewhere has dominated sports headlines for days. The child is 15-year-old JJ Gabriel, with Spain as a likely destination, but he is currently registered with Manchester United, one of the world's biggest clubs. This situation is both about him and not about him: the intense interest in footballers too young to drive is set to increase, with moves being reported at even younger ages.
Financial pressures driving the trend
The acceleration is a direct result of Premier League spending. A £100million price tag no longer signifies a generational talent but merely a very good midfielder. £3.7billion was spent across the window, nearly half in intra-Premier League transfers. The league's financial might means the rest of Europe cannot compete, with a few exceptions.
David Wagner, former Norwich and Huddersfield manager and now RB Leipzig's academy boss, explained the knock-on effects. 'We have to make a certain percentage – double figures for sure – of our team be produced by our academy… because the market in the last five, seven years went so expensive. It even makes it more important that we start to produce first-team players from the academy,' he said.
Academy strategy as a response
Leipzig's success signing Yan Diomande for €25m in July last year and selling him a year later to Real Madrid for €100m more is key to their competitiveness. Wagner noted, 'You might have asked when we sold Benjamin Sesko, Xavi Simons, Lois Openda, I don't know how many goals we sold last summer: how can you qualify for the Champions League if you sold your best players? Well, by buying Diomande and building him up.'
Leipzig's CEO of sport Marcel Schafer works with Wagner to plan for the future. 'You need to go earlier on the players. Obviously it's tricky because we're talking about really young humans. If you see in the market now 18, 19, 20-year-old players are the rising stars in any top five league,' he said. 'So we have to go a little bit earlier: bring them already into our academy and develop them quick as possible into our first team.'
Factors intensifying the Gabriel storm
Three factors intensify the JJ Gabriel situation. First, he is exceptionally talented and well known – The Telegraph likened his possible exit to Barcelona losing Lionel Messi. Second, Brexit means English players must be 18 to transfer abroad, but Gabriel, with Irish and Cypriot heritage, could leave two years earlier when he turns 16. Third, Premier League profit and sustainability rules mean selling an academy product counts as pure profit.
Kids as young as three are being funnelled into football-focused environments as the search for talent starts earlier. As player costs at the pinnacle of the sport continue to rise, the smart move for fiscally-constrained clubs is to buy smarter, meaning ever earlier in the food chain.
Gabriel's exceptional promise
Gabriel is considered the most exceptional young talent to progress through United's youth ranks in recent years, regarded as the best player in the country born in 2010. His ability to take the ball on the turn has seen him likened to Phil Foden. Under United's Under-18 boss Darren Fletcher, he has developed into a lethal goal scorer.
Football is full of stories of unique talents failing to make the step up. Angel Gomes, United's youngest Premier League player, made just 10 more appearances after his debut. Shola Shoretire, the youngest player to represent the club in European competition, now plays for PAOK. But Gabriel's situation feels different. United hope it can be rectified, but the club cannot be seen being held to ransom by a schoolboy. Barcelona's interest is well-documented, and Gabriel holds an Irish passport through his dad, former Republic of Ireland international Joe O'Cearuill, meaning any move abroad would be free of Brexit red tape.
