The Minnesota Lynx enter the 2026 WNBA playoffs as the clear favorites to win the championship, according to our writers, who see the Las Vegas Aces as the most likely high seed to fall early.
Season in review
The 30th WNBA season will be remembered as the end of one era and the beginning of another, partly because of Cathy Engelbert’s announcement that she will step down as commissioner at the end of this year. The season mirrored her seven-year tenure: more growth than ever, excellent basketball and breakthroughs for a new generation of stars, but also refereeing controversies and manufactured culture-war hysterics.
Much of the conversation was swallowed by a transgender panic, despite there never having been a trans woman on a WNBA roster. The hypothetical eligibility question became a months-long culture-war spectacle, diverting attention from the league’s expansion and competitive depth. The WNBA welcomed two new teams and produced perhaps the deepest and best basketball the league has seen.
Teams missed and at risk
The Toronto Tempo will be missed most, mainly because of Playoff Marina Mabrey, whose record-tying 53-point game on 25 June was a season highlight. Toronto went 2-23 from that game onward due to injuries. The Phoenix Mercury collapsed to 16-28 and missed the playoffs, meaning no Alyssa Thomas. The Portland Fire’s absence was also noted, as was the Seattle Storm’s worst season since their first, with rookies Flau’jae Johnson and Awa Fam needing time to mature.
The Las Vegas Aces are the high seed most at risk of going out early. Indiana’s Aliyah Boston knows how to play against A’ja Wilson, though Boston had a flare-up of a leg injury in the Fever’s regular-season finale. The Aces are 11-10 against playoff teams and haven’t beaten one without NaLyssa Smith, out with a season-ending leg injury. The Minnesota Lynx also enter on a patchy streak, having lost four of their last six games, but they intentionally rested starters down the stretch.
Long shots and key players
Long shots to win include the Washington Mystics, who won seven of their final eight regular-season games, and the New York Liberty, an eighth seed with Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu and Jonquel Jones. The Dallas Wings, with Paige Bueckers and Arike Ogunbowale, were also mentioned.
The most important player this postseason is Olivia Miles of Minnesota. With her, the Lynx are front-runners for their first title since 2017; without her, the road gets tougher. She sat out the final two games with a calf injury, and Minnesota played just two games without her, winning one and losing the other. Kelsey Mitchell of Indiana was also cited, averaging 25 points with a WNBA-record run of 27 consecutive 20-point games.
Champion predictions
Three of our four writers pick the Minnesota Lynx, citing their top-four ranking at both ends despite Napheesa Collier missing half the year, and Olivia Miles’s transformation of the backcourt. One writer chose the Golden State Valkyries as a contrarian pick, noting their league-best defense and Gabby Williams’s strong season finale.
