The mood among United States soccer supporters has turned decidedly sour following two consecutive pre-World Cup friendly losses. This disappointing run has cast a shadow over preparations for the upcoming tournament, raising concerns about the team's readiness.
Historical Precedent Suggests Caution Against Panic
However, a closer examination of history reveals that these worrying results might be less significant than they appear. Numerous examples demonstrate how little a team's form in the World Cup run-in matters once the tournament proper begins.
The 1994 Parallel: Dire Preparations, Strong Performance
The last time the United States men's national team prepared for a World Cup on home soil, their pre-tournament results were truly dismal. From January through April of 1994, the Americans played twelve games and managed just two victories. They even suffered an embarrassing loss to Iceland, who were considered a non-factor in global soccer at that time.
Remarkably, that same 1994 team went on to survive the group stage and narrowly lost 1-0 to eventual champions Brazil in the round of sixteen. They delivered on expectations despite their thoroughly deflating preparation period.
Current Concerns Amidst a Winless Streak
This historical precedent may offer some consolation to present-day USA fans. When the team next gathers in May for final preparations with friendlies against Senegal and Germany, they will have endured more than six months without a victory.
During their recent March camp, the USMNT showed flashes of promise across three solid halves of football. They displayed slight superiority in the first half against Belgium before collapsing in the second half during a 5-2 defeat. Against Portugal, they forced numerous high turnovers and created promising breakaways, yet still lost 2-0 due to defensive lapses.
The net result of more than a week's intensive work is two unflattering defeats, completely draining momentum from a team that had cruised through autumn with four wins and a tie against five World Cup-bound opponents.
Expert Perspective: March Assessments "Quite Worthless"
Roberto Martínez, the current Portugal and former Belgium manager, offered a seasoned perspective on reading too much into these results. "If I can give you a little bit of my experience, it's don't take too much of your assessments and evaluations in March," Martínez stated. "Because they are quite worthless."
He made this comment regarding the Americans' defeat to Belgium, before his own Portuguese team plunged US fans further into their crisis of faith with another victory.
England's Parallel Experience
This message might also soothe England supporters, considering their own team's mirthless March performances including a tie with rudderless Uruguay and a loss to Japan. It should be noted that England entered the 2022 World Cup with no wins in six matches, yet still enjoyed a broadly successful tournament before running into France in the quarter-finals.
A Distinctly American Tradition
Posting successful World Cup campaigns on the back of shaky, concerning pre-tournament results has become something of an American tradition.
Early Examples:
- In 1950, the US lost their sole tune-up game to an assortment of English players featuring superstar Stanley Matthews. They then famously stunned England 1-0 at the World Cup in Brazil.
- In 2002, the Americans lost to Italy, Germany, Ireland, and the Netherlands in their World Cup run-up, beating only regional foes and a Uruguay side that would go winless at the tournament. Yet in South Korea, they made their deepest run in over seventy years, reaching the quarter-finals and pushing Germany to the brink.
- In 2010, the US was dominated 2-1 by the Netherlands in March and lost 4-2 to the Czech Republic in one of their send-off games. They still had a strong World Cup, advancing from a difficult group.
The Counter-Examples:
- Conversely, the US entered the 1998 World Cup on a five-game unbeaten run and won both send-off games before the 2006 tournament. They went winless at both those World Cups.
Recent History:
- The 2014 World Cup team lost to Ukraine and tied Mexico in March and April before surviving the "group of death" in Brazil that summer.
- Ahead of the 2022 World Cup, Gregg Berhalter's team appeared uninterested during losses to Japan and Saudi Arabia in September friendlies before the November competition.
Team Leadership Maintains Optimism
Despite the disappointing results, key figures within the US camp are projecting confidence and focusing on positives.
"Obviously, we're disappointed with the results," forward Christian Pulisic told TNT after the recent games. "But, to be honest, I'm taking a lot of positives from it. I think we're a lot closer than we may seem. I still feel positives and I have belief in this team. I feel good things coming."
Head coach Mauricio Pochettino echoed this sentiment, consistent with his generally positive disposition. "We cannot be negative because of the result," he stated. "But, of course, the results are negative."
"I am happy about the camp," Pochettino added. "I think this camp is very positive. It was the end of our trajectory of preparation for the World Cup. I am more positive now than before. Seeing the team compete, we are not far away. It's only details that we need to improve."
The Crucial Details
Details, certainly. And, realistically, improved results too. But history strongly suggests that for the US men's national soccer team, both are more likely to materialize once the World Cup actually kicks off than during the often misleading preparation phase.
