With the FIFA World Cup just weeks away, set to take place across Canada, Mexico, and the United States from 11 June to 19 July, scientists have unveiled which teams are most likely to lift the trophy. Researchers from the University of Innsbruck have calculated the winning probabilities for all 48 participating nations, and their findings will delight fans of Spain.
Spain Leads the Pack
According to the researchers' calculations, Spain is the favourite with a 14.5 per cent chance of winning the tournament. However, England supporters can take heart as their team is close behind with a 12.4 per cent probability, tied with France and ahead of Germany at 11.2 per cent. Co–lead author Achim Zeileis noted, 'Compared to previous tournaments, this year's title race is very tight.'
In contrast, Jordan is deemed the least likely to win, while Scotland has just a 0.2 per cent chance of victory.
Methodology Behind the Odds
To generate these odds, the researchers employed a broad range of data, including teams' performances in past international matches, bookmaker odds for the upcoming tournament, player ratings from club and international games, and the average market value of squads. This information was combined using a machine learning algorithm that estimates the predicted number of goals for all possible matches between the 48 teams.
The algorithm identifies Spain, England, France, and Germany as clear favourites. Further back are Portugal (8.9 per cent), Argentina (8.2 per cent), the Netherlands (5.6 per cent), and Brazil (4.7 per cent). At the bottom of the list, Jordan is the least likely winner, followed by Qatar, Iraq, South Africa, and Curacao.
Probabilistic Nature of Forecasts
The researchers emphasise that these forecasts are probabilistic and 'by no means certain.' Co–author Andreas Groll of TU Dortmund University explained, 'The probability that the top favourite will actually win the tournament is usually no more than 20%, which conversely also means that some other team wins with a probability of 80%.' He added that as a statistician, he is more interested in whether many of the predicted teams go far on average.
The team has a track record of accuracy, having correctly predicted the winners of the 2010 World Cup, Euro 2012, and the 2019 Women's World Cup.
Heat Concerns for Players and Fans
These predictions come shortly after researchers warned that players and fans will face unbearable heat during many matches. Experts from World Weather Attribution modelled conditions for all 104 games, finding that a quarter of matches will be played in unsafe conditions, with five so hot that postponement is advised. Worryingly, many of these matches are scheduled in venues without air conditioning, including Miami, Kansas City, New York, and Philadelphia. This includes Scotland's clash with Brazil in Miami on 24 June.
Dr Joyce Kimutai, an author of the study from Imperial College London, stated, 'The climate that the tournament is being played in today has fundamentally shifted in just 32 years. While organisers have attempted to reduce the risk by scheduling some games in high–risk – uncooled – locations like Miami and Kansas City later in the day, there's a very real risk that we'll be faced with games taking place in conditions that are unsafe for players and fans.'
