NFL Offseason Storylines: Pro Bowler Trades, the Draft, and Major Quarterback Moves
Following the league's combine gathering, the NFL offseason is set to be dominated by compelling narratives over the coming weeks and months. Key plots include high-stakes quarterback decisions, draft intrigue, and a flurry of potential blockbuster trades that could reshape teams for the upcoming season.
Who Will Be the No. 2 Pick in the Draft?
While Fernando Mendoza of Indiana, the Heisman Trophy winner and national champion, is almost certain to be the No. 1 overall pick by the Raiders on 23 April, the real mystery begins with the second selection. The New York Jets hold this pick, and with no other quarterbacks projected in the top 10, they face a critical choice among elite defensive prospects.
The contenders for the Jets' pick include Ohio State's Arvell Reese and Caleb Downs, Miami's Rueben Bain Jr, and Texas Tech's David Bailey. Reese stands out as the most dynamic player, a hybrid linebacker-edge rusher with the physical tools to transition fully to the edge, akin to Micah Parsons or Abdul Carter. However, his best college performances came as a linebacker, raising questions about his fit in the NFL.
Downs, a safety, is arguably the best player in the draft pound for pound, but safeties have been devalued in recent drafts. Selecting him second overall would mark the highest slot for a safety since Eric Turner in 1991. Bailey and Bain offer traditional edge-rushing skills with explosive speed, though Bailey is unrefined as a pass rusher, and Bain faces scrutiny over his arm length.
The Jets' decision boils down to whether to prioritize a superior player at a non-premium position, gamble on Reese's versatility, or bet on Bailey or Bain becoming dominant pass rushers in a thin draft class.
Where Will Malik Willis Sign?
Malik Willis emerges as the most fascinating free agent this cycle, expected to command at least $30 million annually despite limited playing time. Over the past two seasons as Green Bay's backup, Willis has shown significant growth, transitioning from an effective runner to a more polished passer under Matt LaFleur's complex system.
With only six career starts and fewer than 100 pass attempts in recent years, Willis's sample size is small, but his flashes of talent—including arm strength and pocket poise—have been impressive. At 26, he represents a rare opportunity for teams to acquire a potential franchise starter, likely earning a contract worth around $100 million.
The Arizona Cardinals, Miami Dolphins, and Pittsburgh Steelers are frontrunners for his signature. The Cardinals offer schematic continuity with Mike LaFleur, brother of Packers coach Matt LaFleur, while the Dolphins' new leadership includes former Packers personnel familiar with Willis. However, Miami must first resolve Tua Tagovailoa's contract, which could incur $90 million in dead money if released.
The Steelers present an ideal fit with a young offensive line and offensive firepower, making Willis a compelling alternative to the aging Aaron Rodgers. Mike McCarthy's reputation as a quarterback developer could be key in unlocking Willis's potential, positioning him as the next star in Pittsburgh.
The Quarterback Carousel
Willis is just the first domino in a quarterback market filled with big names and reclamation projects. Kirk Cousins is seeking a new team, the Cardinals plan to release Kyler Murray, Tagovailoa is on the outs in Miami, and Geno Smith may have a final act left. With a weak draft class, all four could find starting roles next season.
Anthony Richardson adds intrigue as a buy-low trade candidate, with the Colts set to franchise tag and extend Daniel Jones. Richardson's athleticism is undeniable, but injuries and inconsistency have hampered his development. The Minnesota Vikings, led by coach Kevin O'Connell—a longtime admirer—could provide the right environment to assess his potential as a competent starter.
Prepare for a Flurry of Trades
This offseason's free-agent class lacks star power, making trades the primary avenue for acquiring game-changing talent. Maxx Crosby of the Raiders tops the list, with the team publicly keen to retain him but Crosby expressing a desire to leave. The asking price, likely multiple draft picks and a starter, mirrors recent deals for Micah Parsons and Quinnen Williams.
Potential suitors include the Buccaneers, Patriots, 49ers, and Bears, though Crosby's age—approaching 30—and high snap counts may give teams pause. AJ Brown is another major trade target, coming off a tumultuous season with the Eagles. Despite being under contract for three more years, internal tensions suggest his time in Philadelphia is over, with a trade potentially costing the Eagles $40 million in dead money.
Brown's preferred destination is rumored to be New England, thanks to his connection with Mike Vrabel, but the Chiefs and Bills could also pursue him to pair with Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen. Beyond Crosby and Brown, players like DJ Moore, Brian Thomas Jr, and Mac Jones could be on the move, ensuring a juicy trade market that compensates for the lackluster free agency and draft options.
