Manchester City should secure a knockout place in the Champions League, but a top-eight finish is now a more difficult target under the competition's revamped format.
The Champions League is in its third season since the first phase was restructured. Instead of eight groups of four teams playing six matches each, it is now a 36-team league table where every side plays four opponents at home and four different teams away.
Enzo Maresca cannot be certain what City need to qualify after just two years of the new system, but trends have emerged. Although the competition is seen as having less jeopardy, the race for a top-eight spot demands more effort than in the old format.
Play-off qualification within reach
A top-24 finish guarantees City a place in the play-offs, and that should not be difficult. In the 2024/25 season, only one team accrued 11 points and failed to qualify, while last season nine points was enough for Bodo/Glimt and Benfica to sneak in.
Winning home games remains a key principle. City lost their first home match to PSG last week but have three more home fixtures after their opening victory in Porto. Reaching the top 24 should not be a problem.
Top-eight importance for English clubs
For English teams, making the top eight is vital to avoid extra congestion from a play-off. The new format means two extra games in January alongside FA Cup rounds and potentially a Carabao Cup semi-final, and a play-off would add another two matches to an already-packed calendar.
In the last two seasons, 16 points has been the magic number for a top-eight finish and a direct place in the last 16. That should be the aim this season, with anyone missing out on that number unlucky.
There are few ways to reach 16 points: four wins and four draws would do it, but that is already impossible for City after the PSG defeat. The most common route is five wins, one draw, and two defeats from eight fixtures.
City's remaining fixtures
Having beaten Porto, City will aim to win home games against AEK Athens this month, Napoli next month, and Sporting in January. That would leave one win and one draw needed from trips to Leipzig, Barcelona, and Lens.
That feels manageable, and City could get even better results. A top-four finish offers more advantages, requiring 19 points in 2024 and 17 last year.
One unexpected slip, as happened at home to Leverkusen last year, can leave a team scrambling. City should beat AEK on Tuesday whether Erling Haaland plays or not, but one defeat has already limited their margin for error in a format where nobody wants to rely on other teams' results.
Losing to PSG should not derail City's Champions League campaign, but it is harder to stay on track than it used to be.
