Manchester City could face severe sanctions if their appeal against a guilty verdict on 114 financial charges fails, with potential punishments ranging from a points deduction to expulsion from the Premier League.
An independent commission found City guilty on 114 of the 115 charges they faced, relating to breaches of financial rules and reporting requirements between 2009 and 2018. The club have denied all wrongdoing and appealed, claiming to possess "irrefutable evidence" that their revenues and contracts were authentic. The appeals process is underway, with reports suggesting the Premier League Appeal Board's findings may not be delivered until January.
Severe points deduction
Insiders currently point to a points deduction being the most likely punishment if City lose their appeal, according to reports. The Daily Mail claims that the sanction may be so harsh that it guarantees the club will be relegated to the Championship, with a further deduction ensuring they remain in the division for another season.
Points deductions have been handed out in recent years for breaches, namely to Everton and Nottingham Forest in the 2023/24 season. Should the sanction be as severe as anticipated and City are indeed relegated, a promoted Championship side would simply replace City, provided City satisfy the EFL's admission and financial criteria.
Things could get complicated concerning the rumoured second-season deduction, as the EFL would have to hand this out. But if this can be agreed upon, there is no need to alter how the Championship operates. Among rival fans, some feel this prospective punishment lets City off lightly, whilst others see it as fair. It is likely that, with City's infrastructure, they could bounce back into the top flight following this hypothetical period. However, several first-team players would likely wish to leave should they be relegated, and many changes would have to be made regarding wages.
A massive fine
Reports also state that City will be fined, either alongside a points deduction or as their sole punishment. Ex-Arsenal star Martin Keown claimed on talkSPORT that sources tell him this is how City will be punished should their appeal fail.
The nature of any fine is purely speculative, as would be the amount. The largest fine the Premier League has ever handed out to a club was the £10.75 million imposed on Chelsea in March. However, the severity of the findings means any financial sanction would dwarf that figure.
City have a £715m annual turnover, so, speaking theoretically, the fine they may get determines how seriously they are impacted. Anything less than £50m may not make a dent. In contrast, anything above £200m would affect spending and perhaps force player sales, as the league restricts owner-funded losses to £90m over a three-year period. In the unlikely event that the league chooses to fine City the full sum of their supposed £800m-plus in disguised owner funding, it would probably decimate the current squad, although this remains almost unfathomable.
Immediate expulsion
A final and nuclear option for the Premier League is to remove City from the current hierarchy altogether. Depending on the FA's classification, they could end up in the National League or Tier 10 of the football pyramid if this drastic action were taken and the EFL refused to accept them.
If this were to occur, City would receive no parachute payments or prize money from higher leagues. Players would almost certainly be forced to leave, as would highly paid members of staff, as the current infrastructure would not be capable of operating in non-league football. City's fanbase would also feel the effects of this sanction hard, as allocations for away fixtures would be minimal.
Yet severe logistical hurdles suggest outright expulsion remains improbable. The receiving non-league competition would have to formally accept City, distorting promotion and relegation quotas across the pyramid. The Premier League and Championship would also face unresolved fixture vacancies. Whichever league City lands in could also reject them. Lastly, City's legal counsel would almost certainly challenge an expulsion order in the High Court under the Arbitration Act, seeking an emergency injunction that could leave English football entangled in litigation for years.
