Manchester City travel to Anfield on Sunday in the midst of the biggest scandal in English football history, after an independent commission found the club guilty on all charges relating to financial misconduct. The verdict has overshadowed the season's ambitions, with questions now asked about what can really be expected of Enzo Maresca's new-look group in the months ahead.
City had been off to a flying start under Maresca, winning every game in all competitions from the start of the season to quash speculation of a drop-off after the departure of legendary boss Pep Guardiola. The former Chelsea boss was chosen as successor for his similarities to Guardiola, having worked under the Catalan as assistant manager during the treble-winning season 2022/23, but there are subtle differences.
Dealing with City's potent attack
Maresca is focused on positional discipline and creating overloads in the attacking third, typically using one of his full-backs to reinforce the midfield in possession whilst other players push on. At City, that has often been Matheus Nunes, converted to right-back by Guardiola after signing from Wolves as a midfielder. The Portuguese international inverts in deeper positions to allow more freedom for new £125m signing Enzo Fernandez.
Centre-back Marc Guehi is also adept at stepping into midfield, while at left-back, Josko Gvardiol and Nico O'Reilly are equally capable, even at times getting forward and threatening the box – while also chipping in with plenty of crosses for No. 9 Erling Haaland. Crossing has notably become more prevalent for City with the change in the dugout. Last season, City and Liverpool both averaged 4.4 crosses per 90 – this season, the Sky Blues on average are crossing the ball 5.2 times per 90, more than all but three sides in the league.
That more pragmatic approach suits the big man in the middle. Even in a more physical Premier League, Haaland is capable of beating most centre-backs in the air (winning 52.9% of his aerial duels this season), though City will still look to reach the byline and cut the ball back for him wherever possible. Crosses into Haaland can also lead to knock-downs for City's other attackers, predominantly Rayan Cherki or whoever features at No. 10 – in possession, this player stays close to Haaland in a front two shape.
Maresca's side have had no trouble keeping the ball this season, averaging 63.1% possession – a 2.6% increase on last season – while expected goals (xG: 2.1) and big chances (3.4) per 90 have seen an uptick, too, even as fewer average touches in the opposition box (30.8) compared to last season (37.1) reflect a slightly more direct approach in the final third.
But Liverpool also have a new string to their bow this season. The profile of the Reds' defenders has been significantly beefed up by the arrivals of Jeremy Jacquet and Ronald Araujo, who can point to 76.9% and 72.0% aerial win rates in the league this season, with the captain Virgil van Dijk (71.4%) also remaining elite in this respect. Should City look to attack as they have for the majority of this season to date, Liverpool should feel confident of dealing with the majority of those deliveries into the box.
Dealing with Cherki, though, is an entirely different prospect. City's creator-in-chief is the joint-third top goalscorer in the league with three and has created the most chances (12) for the Manchester club this season. The home midfield will need to stay switched on to cut out the service into the Frenchman, while whoever features at right-back (which may not be Araujo if Jacquet's injury rules him out) will need to be wary of Cherki's well-timed runs into the channels.
Midfield teething troubles
In spite of the joy City have had going forward, their off-the-ball work has had its critics. In terms of xG against, the Citizens actually only rank ninth in the league, having conceded the chances to allow an expected average of 1.4 goals per game so far (Liverpool, for context, rank third with 1.2). City's underlying numbers suggest they should have conceded seven goals so far in the league. In reality, they have conceded five, but the 5-3 win over Sunderland – City's most recent game before the break – gave plenty of pointers to upcoming opponents as to how to create chances against them.
In accommodating for the more experimental positioning of Maresca's full-backs, City's midfield in particular struggled to deal with direct, central moves reliably – a problem which was on full show for the first goal of Brian Brobbey's hat-trick. This, really, shouldn't come as much of a surprise. This summer, City lost Rodri, the midfield general who was the lynchpin of their success in the latter two-thirds of the Guardiola era.
To understand the importance of Rodri, you need only look at the impact he has made at Barcelona since arriving for £65m. The Blaugrana have won all seven of their LaLiga games this season, scoring 31 goals, and Rodri (who has started each of the last five) has quickly made any suggestion of managing his minutes sound laughable. Replacing him with one player would have been impossible, so City signed three: Elliot Anderson, Ayyoub Bouaddi and Fernandez. Anderson and Fernandez have been the go-to starters in the league, and will likely line up against Liverpool.
Integrating Fernandez has been more problematic than Anderson. The Argentine international has typically started in a deeper role alongside Anderson, before pushing up to support the attack to the right of Cherki. The standout trait Fernandez has brought to City's midfield is his passing through the lines. Completing an average of 13.52 line-breaking passes per 90 (97th percentile), the former Chelsea midfielder is elite in this respect.
His competitive edge is also well-established – maybe too well-established, if you ask Pau Cubarsi. Fernandez is in the top 25% of Premier League attacking midfielders for duels won, duel and aerial duel percentage won and interceptions per 90, and being afraid to stick a foot in is not an accusation he is accustomed to fielding. However, Fernandez has so far showed a fragility in the other aspects of his defending at City. Enzo Le Fee was able to waltz between him and Anderson to set up Brian Brobbey for Sunderland's first equaliser, with Fernandez showing a concerning lack of urgency in trying to win the ball back.
Indeed, Fernandez has only made an average of 0.99 tackles per 90 (18th percentile) this season, but has been dribbled past 1.65 times per 90 (7th percentile). Bypassed too often, Fernandez is prone to frustration, and has committed a high number of fouls per game (1.98 – 11th percentile) since joining City. When City are in sustained possession, this has presented less of a problem than Liverpool have had with Dominik Szoboszlai's similar absence from the midfield battle, as one of the full-backs is always available to support Anderson and provide a base from which to win the ball back if it breaks. But when City switch to their 4-4-2 defensive block, or find themselves in transition back towards the more defensive shape, Fernandez is a weak link that can be exploited should the Reds focus their attacks centrally.
Defensive malfunctions
Like the midfield, City's issues in defence are very much real, even if they partly reflect a side flush with new players that is still adapting to a new manager's obsessive tactical plan. Though the back four has predominantly been made up of players who featured regularly last season – Guehi arguably the most consistent, despite having joined in January – the adjusted responsibilities of the full-backs has at time led to confusion.
While Nunes, Gvardiol, O'Reilly and Rico Lewis are all tactically-versatile players, none are defence-first options without obvious weaknesses. The two most likely to start against Liverpool are Nunes and Gvardiol, though centre-back Abdukodir Khusanov has also been used at right-back. Nunes is not an obvious midfielder playing out of position at right-back. While he is excellent on the ball, he is also strong in duels and uses these attributes to hold the fort effectively in possession – 0.85 touches in the opposition box per 90 (23rd percentile) making it clear that he is not being instructed to use his skill on the ball in the final third.
Despite that, he can be vulnerable in one-v-one situations. Nunes makes an average of 1.21 tackles per 90 (21st percentile), but is dribbled past 0.85 times per 90 (44th percentile) – not the worst numbers you'll see, but below what might be expected of the starting right-back for a top team. Gvardiol is a stronger one-v-one defender on the opposite side, making nearly double the number of tackles (2.28) while being dribbled past half as often (0.41), but has struggled at times with more physical tasks, winning just 45.8% of his aerial duels. He is also prone to lapses in concentration when it comes to positioning and marking, allowing Brobbey to tap the ball into the net for his hat-trick unmarked against Sunderland and enduring a performance he will be desperate to forget in England's 7-0 thrashing of Croatia during the international break.
The gaps between the full-backs on both sides and their respective centre-backs were exploited relentlessly by Sunderland, both for that goal – which came from a lofted ball over the top of Nunes from Granit Xhaka to find Nilson Angulo – and for the first equaliser, in which Brobbey was played in with a ball between Nunes and Ruben Dias after Le Fee had evaded Fernandez. Another strength of Liverpool's corresponds with a notable weakness of City's – long balls. The Reds are second in the league behind Sunderland for successful long balls this season (28.6 per 90), and Brobbey's third was not the only goal City have conceded after a long ball this season.
Marcus Tavernier's goal for Bournemouth in their 2-1 defeat at the Etihad in August came after Dias and Khusanov failed to deal with a long ball played quickly after winning it back, much as former Bournemouth boss Iraola is now coaching Liverpool to do. A general lack of height and physicality plays its part here. Of their regular outfield starters (O'Reilly excluded, who is a doubt to feature against Liverpool), only Haaland is taller than 6'1", and that has also seen them struggle to deal with set pieces this season.
In fact, City are ranked 18th in the league for xG conceded from set pieces (2.1), and can count themselves lucky to have only conceded once from such situations this season – Coventry coming the closest to adding to that having given them a scare with a simple long-throw routine in City's 1-0 win at the Etihad last month. This is a potential game-winning condition for Liverpool given the height and aerial ability in Iraola's side, particularly if Jacquet and Araujo both start. The Reds are yet to score from a set-piece in the league this season, but have created chances worth 2.0 xG so far.
Do tactics even matter?
Given the maelstrom City are set to walk into on Sunday, with Liverpool fans at Anfield bound to make it an excruciatingly hostile atmosphere for their much-maligned visitors, it is worth asking the question – do tactics even matter? Well, in short, yes. Liverpool still need to find a route to a goal, and likely more than one goal. If any player refuses to be cowed by the jeers, it feels likely to be Haaland, and the Norwegian international only needs one chance to make his presence felt.
Having said that, this game – and the timing of this game – feels like it might play into Iraola's hands very well. If Alexander Isak is not fit to start, having picked up an injury with Sweden on international duty, it could be harder to make long balls stick, but Sunderland and Bournemouth have already demonstrated how a direct style of football can cause City a raft of problems – especially for the Sky Blues' unfamiliar midfield. Set-pieces, too, will provide opportunities to score if Liverpool can earn enough of them. With Szoboszlai's delivery among the best in the league, and Van Dijk, Jacquet and Araujo probably the strongest trio of defensive aerial threats in the league, the Reds have tools the quality of which City have not yet had to face this season.
On top of that, the mental and emotional state of City's players is bound to have an effect on the game. Indeed, it would be a valid question to ask what significance this game really has at all, given the enormous asterisk that will now sit next to the club's name in every fixture until sanctions are handed out. But Liverpool's players cannot afford to allow themselves to dwell on such questions. Iraola, for one, will not permit it. The Basque joined the club with the intention of experiencing the finest atmospheres in football, and this game will provide something truly unique. There is truth behind 'this means more'. And for the Anfield faithful, this game really does mean more.
*All statistics used are from Fotmob unless otherwise stated.
