England face Spain this evening in a Nations League shootout to decide who tops Group A3. Victory over Croatia on Thursday evening meant England officially joined Spain in qualifying for the Nations League knockout phase with a game to spare.
Group Standings and Qualification
As things stand, the reigning world and European champions lead the way with a three-point lead over England, courtesy of their victory at Wembley Stadium during the autumn international break. Since then, Spain have beaten Croatia and the Czech Republic twice each and just need to avoid defeat against England in the reverse fixture on Sunday to guarantee top spot and an easier quarter-final draw.
However, as England have the superior goal difference (+12 compared to +9) between the two nations, a win for Thomas Tuchel’s side in Madrid would be enough to see them top the group at Spain’s expense. This is because the UEFA tiebreaker first looks at the head-to-head record when sides are locked on the same amount of points, and then total goal difference in the two games between the two sides.
Head-to-Head Decisive Factor
As Spain won the reverse fixture by a one-goal margin in September, any margin of victory for England - whether it be 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 - will guarantee top spot in Nations League Group A3. Lamine Yamal was on target in Spain’s win over England in September.
Topping the group would set up a possible quarter-final showdown with France, Greece or Denmark, as things currently stand. Furthermore, the group winners will be seeded for the Nations League quarter-final draw, therefore securing home advantage in their second leg ties. Teams from the same group cannot be paired together in the knockout stage, therefore England and Spain - for example - would be kept apart.
Potential Quarter-Final Opponents
Were England to fail to beat Spain and finish second in Group 3, their potential Nations League quarter-final opponents would be Italy, Netherlands or Portugal.
