Cheltenham Festival Strategy: Mullins' Secrecy and Grade Debate
As the Cheltenham Festival draws near, the targets for many of the leading contenders remain shrouded in uncertainty, particularly for the powerhouse stable of trainer Willie Mullins. Punters are growing increasingly frustrated by the lack of concrete information regarding star horses such as Lossiemouth, Fact To File, Gaelic Warrior, and Mighty Park. These four aces from the Mullins yard have had their plans kept discreet, with only subtle hints emerging from sources like the Betfair Exchange, which has consistently pointed Fact To File toward the Ryanair Chase rather than the Gold Cup.
The Waiting Game of a Racing Giant
With less than two weeks until the festival, Mullins' strategic secrecy casts a familiar shadow over the major races. This approach is a classic display of strength from the Closutton team, akin to holding the best cards in a poker game and revealing them only at the last possible moment. For powerful racing connections, punters' frustrations are secondary; announcements will be made when the time is deemed right, not before. Given the multitude of options available for his star-studded roster, it is little wonder that Mullins excels at this waiting game.
Fact To File, despite winning the Irish Gold Cup, appears likely to bypass the Cheltenham Gold Cup in favour of defending his Ryanair Chase title. Jockey Mark Walsh celebrated that Irish victory last month at Leopardstown, but Mullins' vast firepower and the need to satisfy a diverse group of owners, including prominent figure JP McManus, complicate decision-making. This leads to quandaries over horses like Fact To File and Mighty Park, leaving bettors in the dark.
Programme Book Flaws and Racing's Structural Issues
While much punting ire is directed at Mullins for his indecision, the absurdities of Cheltenham's programme book enable such tactics. It is a classic case of not hating the player but the game. Take Lossiemouth, for example: a minor schedule tweak moved her race from Tuesday on the Old Course to Thursday on the New Course, partly to pressure Mullins into running the mare in the Champion Hurdle. This subtle shift to a stamina-laden course might influence decisions, but a more effective solution would be downgrading the Mares' Hurdle to a Grade Two.
Currently, the Mares' Hurdle operates at what is essentially a Grade Two level. If a top-class mare like Lossiemouth were to compete, she would carry a Grade One penalty and concede weight to rivals, which undermines sporting merit. The ideal template was set by Honeysuckle, who conquered both the Mares' Hurdle at the start and end of her career, with two Champion Hurdle victories in between. Aligning the Mares' Hurdle with the Mares' Chase and Mares' Novices' Hurdle as Grade Twos would enhance fairness and clarity.
The Ryanair Chase: A Case for Demotion
An even stronger argument exists for demoting the Ryanair Chase to a Grade Two. This race lacks the prestige of the Champion Chase or Gold Cup, yet it retains Grade One status, often serving merely to dodge or split up contenders from those premier events. This year's renewal epitomises the issue, with the Irish Gold Cup winner opting for the Ryanair instead of attempting the double. As a sporting decision, this is hugely underwhelming, akin to a top football team prioritising the Europa League over the Champions League simply because it is more winnable.
The Ryanair should be a Grade Two, especially given that the Jockey Club, which owns Aintree, offers a superb programme for Grade One horses over intermediate distances during Grand National weekend. If a horse is a genuine Grade One two-and-a-half-miler, Aintree or Fairyhouse are suitable venues. Carrying a penalty in a Grade Two at Cheltenham could remain an option for Festival-obsessed connections, or they could aim higher in the Champion Chase or Gold Cup. History shows that the best horses, like Desert Orchid and Kauto Star, were versatile across trips and conditions, challenging the one-dimensional thinking prevalent in modern racing.
Broader Implications for the Sport
The scrapping of the two-and-a-half-mile Turners Novices' Chase last season, replaced by a novices' handicap, has created misalignment with the Ryanair Chase. Top novice Romeo Coolio appears disadvantaged, though connections may sportingly enter the Arkle or Brown Advisory. Impaire Et Passe, a breathtaking winner of the Ballymore Novices' Hurdle, has not raced at Cheltenham since, missing opportunities due to the Turners' elimination and a failed Champion Hurdle campaign. He won at Aintree instead, but with less firepower, he might have triumphed in a weak Brown Advisory race, which produced no subsequent winners last festival.
Now, Impaire Et Passe is oddly down the pecking order at Closutton, highlighting the challenges when one yard dominates with numerous top horses. Even Cheltenham cannot accommodate them all, but improvements are possible. By downgrading the Mares' Hurdle and Ryanair Chase to Grade Two, the sport could better guide the best horses toward appropriate competitions, enhancing fairness and excitement for all involved.
