The draw for the Champions League knockout stages on Friday has produced a remarkably unbalanced bracket, with every single team to have won the competition over the past decade finding themselves on the same side of the draw. This unprecedented situation has dramatically reshaped the tournament's dynamics, creating a clear divide between the heavyweights and the perceived underdogs.
All Recent Champions Concentrated on One Side
Paris Saint-Germain, Real Madrid, Manchester City, Chelsea, Bayern Munich, and Liverpool—the six European giants who have lifted the Champions League trophy since 2016—have all been placed in one half of the draw. This concentration of recent winners sets up a brutal path to the final for any team navigating that side, while offering a comparatively smoother route for others.
Arsenal Emerge as Surprise Favourites
Gifted what many are calling a dream route to the final, Arsenal have now become the bookmakers' favourites to win the Champions League for the first time in May. The Gunners have successfully dodged every single winner from the past ten years, drawing Bayer Leverkusen in the round of 16 next month.
Their potential quarter-final would see them face either Sporting Lisbon or this season's surprise package, Bodo/Glimt. Barcelona, who last won the competition in 2015, represent one of four possible semi-final opponents for Arsenal, but the Catalans must first overcome a challenging last-16 tie against Newcastle and a quarter-final clash with either Tottenham or LaLiga rivals Atletico Madrid.
The Brutal Half of the Draw
On the significantly tougher side of the bracket, Chelsea face PSG in a round of 16 rematch of last summer's inaugural Club World Cup final. Liverpool take on Galatasaray again, having lost to them 1-0 during the group phase, while Manchester City have drawn the familiar challenge of Real Madrid.
This marks the sixth meeting between City and Real Madrid since the 2020–21 season and represents the first time in Champions League history that two teams have faced each other in the knockout stage for five consecutive seasons. Defeating Real Madrid, as City did 1-0 during the group phase in December, would see them take on either Atalanta or Bayern Munich in the quarter-finals.
OPTA's Supercomputer Predictions
According to OPTA's latest Champions League predictions, the lopsided nature of the draw has created some surprising statistical outcomes. Arsenal lead the way with a whopping 27.4% chance of lifting the trophy, followed by Bayern Munich (14.28%), Liverpool (12.83%), and Manchester City (10.79%).
Remarkably, Newcastle have been given a better chance of winning the tournament than both PSG and Real Madrid at 4.66%. The current holders PSG sit at 4.64%, while Real Madrid are predicted at just 2.78% to lift the trophy. Barcelona follow at 7.72%, with Chelsea at 6.86%, Sporting Lisbon at 2.73%, Atletico Madrid at 2.00%, and Tottenham at 1.22%.
Arteta's Reaction to Favourable Draw
Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta made no apology for his team's favourable draw, insisting they have earned the right to an easier route after winning their group phase with a perfect record of eight victories from eight matches.
'Well, we are very excited to play the next round,' the Spaniard said on Friday. 'We have earned the right to be in a strong position with what we've done in the group stage, and that's it. And now we need to start to analyse them and find ways to be better than them, to try to go through the tie.'
When asked if the route ahead gives him excitement, Arteta added: 'Yeah, we are really excited. Obviously, being in the forefront and the way the team is consistently performing gives you a lot of hope and positive thoughts about what is coming.'
The draw has set up what promises to be one of the most intriguing Champions League knockout stages in recent memory, with one side of the bracket packed with recent champions battling for survival, while the other offers Arsenal a historic opportunity to claim their first European crown.
