The AFL landscape is set for significant changes with the introduction of a wildcard round and an expanded finals series, but for some clubs, the outlook remains bleak. In the first of a three-part series predicting the 2026 ladder, we examine the teams likely to occupy the bottom rungs.
Richmond are tipped for the wooden spoon, but there is optimism at Punt Road. Despite a difficult 2025 season marred by injuries, the Noah Balta assault case, and midfield struggles, the Tigers showed promise. The backline impressed, veterans stood up, and youngsters flashed potential. Coach Adem Yze found his footing, and the win over Carlton was a highlight. With pressure off and fan engagement high, Richmond can build on this foundation.
West Coast Eagles are predicted to finish second-last after a one-win season in 2025. However, signs of progress were evident: they led Brisbane, Collingwood, and Port Adelaide away, and nearly beat ladder-leaders Adelaide. Fitness improvements and the emergence of Tom McCarthy, along with a fitter Harley Reid, suggest a quicker turnaround than many expect.
Essendon, plagued by injuries last year with 20 players on the injury list at one point, are expected to finish 16th. Coach Brad Scott has assembled promising draft picks and is adept at managing adversity. The Bombers need luck, realism, and patience—qualities historically scarce at the club.
North Melbourne remain a frustrating side, capable of brilliant passages followed by catastrophic errors. As Dermott Brereton noted, they are an infuriating team. The Kangaroos cannot continue to test their fans' patience, but their women's team offers a bright spot.
