AFL 2026 Predicted Ladder Part Two: Geelong's Historical Hurdles
The Cats face a challenging season ahead, with history suggesting they may struggle to bounce back from last year's grand final defeat. Geelong remains a flawed team, potentially slipping into football's lower middle class after being pulverised by the Lions in the decider.
12th: Melbourne Demons
Melbourne's recent membership video captured the club's disappointment after finishing eight wins off finals last season. Despite narrow losses and close games against top teams, new coach Steven King aims to instil a risk-taking, free-flowing style. With speed-focused drafting and training, King has a clean slate but not a rebuild, boasting champions like Kysaiah Pickett, who has impressed in pre-season trials.
11th: Carlton Blues
Anxiety enveloped Carlton last year, but CEO Graham Wright's data-driven analysis concluded Michael Voss was not the issue. With Jagga Smith's arrival, Sam Walsh's long-term contract, and the departure of distractions like Charlie Curnow, there's medium-to-long-term optimism. Voss emphasises contest and clearance, but the club must adapt to new judgment parameters under "ownership alignment."
10th: St Kilda Saints
St Kilda endured a mid-2025 slump, losing key games and fading from public attention. However, Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera's breakout performance revitalised the club, securing his future and ending Simon Goodwin's coaching career. Coach Ross Lyon, known for media savvy and resilience, pins hopes on young players he has nurtured to lift the Saints from football's lower middle class.
9th: Geelong Cats
Geelong excels at moving past bad losses, but last year's grand final mauling by the Lions poses a significant hurdle. History indicates teams struggle to recover from such defeats. The Cats benefited from a favourable draw last season, losing all four games against top-eight teams. With Patrick Dangerfield aging, Jeremy Cameron injured, and Bailey Smith potentially difficult to manage, Geelong faces a tough opening month against premiership aspirants.
8th: GWS Giants
The Giants were unsettled and unconvincing last season, often chasing games and losing finals from winning positions. Losing key players like Tom Green to injury and Josh Kelly for the year tests their depth. Clayton Oliver, acquired for a future draft pick, carries high expectations despite past issues. The team's resilience, highlighted in a recent documentary, offers hope for brilliant football if they can overcome these setbacks.
7th: Western Bulldogs
The Bulldogs are a seductive yet untrustworthy team, prone to defensive lapses despite occasional brilliance. Sam Darcy's goal-kicking feats and Champion Data ratings can be misleading, as fans witness recurring frustrations. Coach Luke Beveridge's summer reflections on Buddhism and mediocrity underscore the need for improved defence. With Marcus Bontempelli leading the attack, if they learn to defend consistently, they could regain trust and achieve success.
