The 200-1 success of Powerful Glory in the Champions Sprint at Ascot on Saturday has highlighted a trend towards more long-priced winners in British racing since the pandemic. The shock result, followed by Cicero's Gift at 100-1 in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes, was the fourth occasion since January 2023 that two winners at 100-1 or bigger have appeared on the same card in Britain.
In the 15 years before that, such an event did not occur once in around 22,000 fixtures. Data shows that winners at 100-1 or bigger have become more common since 2020. Between 2015 and 2019, an average of 5.5 such winners per year were recorded; from 2020 to 2024, that figure rose to 20 per year, with the strike rate increasing from 0.164% to 0.242%.
The change coincides with a switch in how starting prices are compiled. During the pandemic, with no on-course bookmakers, the system moved from surveying on-course boards to using off-course prices. Critics warned this could lead to fancied runners' prices being 'shaved' and outsiders being given bigger odds, effectively increasing the bookmakers' margin.
Five years on, that prediction appears to have materialised. Horses that might have been 50-1 in 2019 are now often returned at 100-1 or 150-1, while favourites may be trimmed slightly. The shift has been particularly noted in retail betting shops, where many bets are still settled at starting price.
