The outcome of the US midterms is likely to have a direct impact on the UK, chiefly through its effect on the war in Iran, which has been pushing up prices around the world, including in Britain.
Dame Emily Thornberry, chair of the Parliamentary Foreign Affairs Committee and former shadow foreign secretary, said the results largely boil down to one issue: the conflict in Iran and its economic consequences.
The War Powers Act and Funding Limits
Speaking to Metro's Senior Politics Reporter Craig Munro, Dame Emily suggested the Democrats may see the midterms as a mandate to stop the Iranian war. She noted that President Trump will still be in charge of the armed forces, but that Democrats could use the War Powers Act, as Georgia senator Jon Ossoff has said, or rein in military spending by tying funding to a pledge not to use it in the Gulf.
“It might be difficult to do politically, but it might be that perhaps they can use the War Powers Act, as [Georgia senator] Jon Ossoff has said,” she said. “Perhaps they can rein in spending on the military and say we're only going to give you this funding if it's not spent in the Gulf. I mean, it'll be a really interesting period.”
Risk of Escalation Before January
There has been speculation that Trump, feeling he has nothing left to lose, could decide to strike Iran even harder. Dame Emily said she shares those concerns, predicting he may try to bring some form of resolution in Iran before the new congressmen and senators are sworn in on January 3.
“I think that probably what he'll want to do is to bring some form of resolution in Iran before the new congressmen and senators are sworn in [on January 3], because presumably he'll be advised that they will give him a hard time over the Iranian war, so it's best to get it sorted one way or the other,” she said. “And whether he's capable of doing that, of course, is another matter.”
Cost-of-Living Backlash
In an interview with the BBC's Chris Mason in Antigua, Andy Burnham said he would be “working for de-escalation” and making “very clear” he wants the Strait of Hormuz open again. He suggested the midterm results were a backlash against the pressures from the Iran war: “That's what the voters, in my view, are saying in the United States – let's get focused in a laser-like way on those cost-of-living issues.”
At last week's Budget, John Healey was clear about the devastation wreaked on the British economy by a war the UK does not support and is powerless to end. It remains to be seen how the latest electoral earthquake changes the equation.
