The Conservatives might avoid a heavy defeat in today's local elections because Leave voters have limited alternatives, according to polling expert Sir John Curtice. He said the absence of Nigel Farage's Brexit Party and a shortage of UKIP candidates could be a 'silver lining' for Prime Minister Theresa May.
The Tories are predicted to lose up to 800 seats, which would be their worst result in 20 years. However, Sir John noted that the Brexit Party is not on the ballot paper, and UKIP is contesting only about one in six seats. This leaves unhappy Leave voters with the choice of either staying home or still voting Conservative.
There are 8,374 council seats up for grabs in England and 460 in Northern Ireland. The Tories hold 4,628 seats and are contesting 95 per cent of all seats. In contrast, UKIP is contesting just 16 per cent of seats, having been hit by defections to the Brexit Party and controversy over links with Tommy Robinson.
An analysis by Tory election expert Rob Hayward predicted the party could lose over 800 seats, with some senior figures fearing losses could exceed 1,000. A heavy defeat is likely to intensify calls for Mrs May to set a date for her departure. Lord Hayward said the Tories appear on course for their worst drubbing since 1995, when Tony Blair crushed John Major's government.
Professor Curtice pointed out that many seats being contested are in Tory 'shire' areas, and the results could be worse due to the current political situation. However, he suggested that the lack of Brexit Party candidates might mitigate the losses.
