The Conservatives have warned that Labour's migrant U-turn could lead to a £5 billion increase in Britain's benefits bill, with up to 450,000 more people potentially claiming Universal Credit.
The warning follows Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood's failure to clamp down on settlement rights for the record influx of foreign nationals who arrived during the first years of this decade. New analysis suggests that of the 1.4 million people expected to gain indefinite leave to remain, around a third could claim benefits.
Universal Credit claims among settled migrants
According to Department for Work and Pensions figures, some 220,283 people with Indefinite Leave to Remain were receiving Universal Credit in December 2025 – around 32 per cent of the estimated 690,926 non-EU citizens with settled status.
If a similar rate goes on to claim Universal Credit from the so-called Boris Wave, it will cost £5.2 billion. The projection comes as the Conservatives try to convince voters they understand the fury over more than 4 million people moving to the UK in four years.
Conservative response
Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary Helen Whately said: "Our country cannot afford the ballooning benefits bill. People who come to the UK should be contributing, not drawing benefits.
"We will prioritise Brits in the welfare system and stop giving benefits to immigrants. Indefinite Leave to Remain and Limited Leave to Remain will no longer give automatic access to Universal Credit and sickness benefits. This will save billions and there's a principle at stake here too: British citizenship matters. We are not a cash machine for the world."
Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp said: "Settlement should be earned through work, tax and contribution. It should not be a ticket to a lifetime on benefits.
"Labour are preparing to wave through 1.4 million people by 2030, while Shabana Mahmood has just handed hundreds of thousands the old five-year fast track to settlement.
"The Conservative Party has put forward serious plans to bring immigration numbers down for good. A hard annual cap on visas, doubling the residency requirement for Indefinite Leave to Remain from five to ten years, and changing the criteria for ILR so we can remove those who do not contribute to Britain."
Policy changes and reaction
Ms Mahmood on Monday confirmed care workers will be able to apply for indefinite leave to remain after five years – ten years before her original proposals – if they've earned £25,000-per-year in the sector. She also dropped plans to restrict benefits to British citizens, watered down the qualifying period for lower-skilled, lower-paid migrants from 15 to 10 years and paved the way for illegal arrivals to settle.
Foreign care workers who do not qualify for the five-year settlement will be able to apply for a new five-year visa, and then seek settlement once that has been completed. The Tories on Tuesday vowed to review and revoke migrants' settlement rights if they win the next election.
Kemi Badenoch declared that being granted settlement rights is no longer a "guaranteed ticket to benefits". This will prevent the NHS turning into the "Global Health Service", reserving benefits and council housing for "British people", Tory policy chief Neil O'Brien told the Daily Express.
The Tories have proposed that anyone coming to the UK legally will have to wait 10 years before they can settle and another five before becoming British citizens.
A Home Office source said: "The last Conservative Government lost control of our migration system entirely. They lowered skills and income requirements to allow millions of people to arrive in this country. They handed out settlement to anyone, automatically, after five years.
"This absurd analysis assumes that we will be as hopeless as they were. It is totally wrong. We are ensuring that settlement can only follow contribution. Half a million people, who they handed visas to, cannot settle in the next five years because of the action this Government has taken. Under the Conservatives, they all would have been waved through.
"The Conservatives left a mess behind. We are dealing with it."
