Senior Coalition sources believe that Sussan Ley’s leadership of the Liberal Party is effectively finished following a dramatic split over hate speech laws, which has fractured the Coalition for the second time in eight months. Multiple sources anticipate a challenge could emerge as early as Friday, after the day of mourning for the Bondi massacre.
Angus Taylor and Andrew Hastie are the leading contenders to replace Ley, according to sources. Both belong to the same right faction, meaning only one could realistically contest a ballot. Tim Wilson and Ted O’Brien have also been mentioned internally but are considered outsiders. A leadership spill can be triggered if two MPs petition the party whip, and sources expect a petition could be signed within 48 hours.
The crisis deepened when Ley sacked three Nationals senators for crossing the floor over the hate speech laws, prompting all Nationals frontbenchers, including leader David Littleproud, to resign from the shadow ministry. Littleproud described the Coalition as “untenable” and his own leadership may also be at risk. Senior Liberals across factions believe Ley’s position is terminal due to poor polling and repeated Coalition splits.
“You can’t come back from this – it’s done and dusted,” one Liberal said. Another MP described Ley’s position as “toxic and terminal”. However, some cautioned against an immediate challenge, with one moderate warning it would be “reckless”. The party room is scheduled to meet when parliament returns on 3 February, but the timing of any change remains uncertain.
There are concerns that allowing the Nationals to dictate the Liberal leadership could set a dangerous precedent. “If we decide to change our leader now, we're caving into the demands of the Nationals again,” one Liberal MP said. Others urged a quick change to avoid further damage, while frontbencher Melissa McIntosh called for unity, saying the country needs strong opposition leadership “more than ever”.
