Pressure is mounting on Prime Minister Keir Starmer following Labour's disappointing performance in this week's local elections. The party leader is confronting increasing discontent within his own ranks, with numerous MPs suggesting that he should step down.
Starmer's Make-or-Break Speech
Tomorrow, Sir Keir is scheduled to deliver a pivotal speech outlining his vision for revitalising Labour's electoral fortunes. However, backbencher Cat West has already pledged to initiate a leadership contest in the morning, aiming to galvanise the Cabinet into action by seeking nominations from fellow MPs for the party's top position.
Many observers believe that Ms West, who represents a London constituency, is acting as a stalking horse for Health Secretary Wes Streeting. An early leadership election could advantage Streeting over Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, who is not currently a member of the House of Commons.
Nevertheless, it remains uncertain whether Ms West can secure the backing of the 81 MPs required to trigger a full contest. So, how could Sir Keir be ousted from Downing Street?
A Formal Challenge
Under Labour Party rules, if there is no vacancy for party leader, potential challengers may seek nominations. Those wishing to replace Sir Keir must be nominated by 20 per cent of Labour MPs. With 403 Labour MPs in the Commons, each challenger needs 81 supporters to force a leadership election. Sir Keir himself does not need to seek nominations if he wishes to defend his position; as the sitting leader, his name automatically appears on the ballot paper.
Labour members of at least six months' standing, along with affiliated supporters such as trade union members, vote on a 'one person, one vote' basis. A candidate receiving more than half of the votes wins. If no candidate achieves a majority on first preferences, votes are redistributed according to preferences. The winner must then visit the King to confirm their position as Prime Minister.
A Cabinet Revolt
A more plausible route to forcing Sir Keir out would be to make his continuation practically impossible. A mass resignation of senior Cabinet ministers or a significant wave of dissent within the Parliamentary party could convince him to step down. This approach would also allow rivals to compete in a wider contest rather than uniting behind a single challenger. Boris Johnson faced a similar situation in 2021 when a series of ministerial resignations led to his departure. Johnson ruefully remarked afterwards that 'when the herd moves, it moves'.
