Labour is braced for record-breaking losses in Thursday’s local elections in England, with polling experts predicting the party could lose up to 1,900 council seats. In a final appeal to voters, Prime Minister Keir Starmer argued that Nigel Farage of Reform and the Greens’ Zack Polanski are ‘not fit to meet this moment of great global instability’, urging voters to choose ‘progress and a better future’ with Labour councils.
The University of Oxford’s Stephen Fisher has forecast that Labour may lose more than 75% of its seats, while Reform is expected to take historically Labour councils such as Barnsley and Sunderland. Labour MPs have warned that any loss exceeding 1,500 seats could be existential for Starmer’s leadership.
In Scotland, the SNP is projected to fall just short of a majority in the 2026 Holyrood election, likely requiring a coalition with the Scottish Greens, while Labour is tied for second place and predicted to lose five MSPs. In Wales, Labour is on course to lose power to Plaid Cymru, potentially prompting calls for Starmer’s resignation from Welsh First Minister Eluned Morgan if she loses her seat.
Leadership speculation is mounting, with some MPs hoping that regional mayors including Andy Burnham and Sadiq Khan may join calls for a change of prime minister. However, potential contenders such as Wes Streeting and Angela Rayner are reportedly unwilling to be the first to challenge Starmer. The prime minister is said to be considering a speech outlining the government’s next steps before the King’s Speech.
On Tuesday, the centrist Labour Growth Group will publish a report calling for stronger action on living standards and housing, reflecting research showing that many voters switching to the Greens or Reform favour a more radical approach to structural problems. A source from the group said: ‘The scale of the results will show how impatient voters are now.’
