Vladimir Putin is facing the most challenging period of his 25-year rule, with disillusionment spreading among Russia's elite and the public over the faltering war in Ukraine and a worsening economy, according to sources close to the Kremlin and Western intelligence officials.
Despite carefully staged appearances, such as a recent dinner with his former schoolteacher, Putin is increasingly isolated. A well-connected business leader said: 'There's definitely been a shift in mood among the elites this year … there is profound disappointment in Putin.' The source added that there is a 'growing sense that some kind of catastrophe is looming'.
Putin's approval ratings are slipping, and even pro-Kremlin bloggers are beginning to criticise him. However, those familiar with his thinking say he remains determined to press on with the war, believing Moscow can capture the entire Donbas region by the end of the year. A Ukrainian intelligence official said Russian generals are feeding Putin 'fabricated reports … claiming victory is imminent'.
Military analysts dispute this optimism, noting that at the current pace of advance, it could take years to fully capture the Donbas. A senior European intelligence official said: 'Even if many around him understand the reality of the situation, we still don't know what Putin himself understands. That's the most difficult part.'
Putin has also lost faith in Donald Trump's ability to broker a deal that would force Ukraine to cede territory, according to sources involved in backchannel talks. 'There was this widespread optimism in Moscow that Trump could deliver the Donbas after his election. It has largely evaporated,' one source said.
