Vladimir Putin is facing the most challenging period of his 25-year rule, with growing disillusionment among Russia's elite and a faltering war in Ukraine, according to interviews with sources close to the president, business leaders, and Western intelligence officials.
Despite carefully staged events to project an image of confidence, such as a recent dinner with his former schoolteacher, Putin is increasingly isolated. A well-connected business leader said: 'There is profound disappointment in him. There's a growing sense that some kind of catastrophe is looming.'
Putin's approval ratings are slipping, the economy is under pressure, and even pro-Kremlin bloggers are beginning to criticise him. However, those familiar with his thinking say he remains determined to press on with the war, believing Russia can capture the entire Donbas region by the end of the year.
A Ukrainian intelligence official said Russian generals are feeding Putin fabricated reports claiming victory is imminent, while military analysts say it could take years to fully capture Donbas at the current pace. One senior European intelligence official noted: 'Even if many around him understand the reality, we still don't know what Putin himself understands.'
Putin has also lost faith in Donald Trump's ability to pressure Ukraine into a territorial deal, according to sources. A source in contact with Putin said: 'There was this widespread optimism in Moscow that Trump could deliver the Donbas after his election. It has largely evaporated.'
