Kristi Noem’s odds of being the first Trump cabinet member to be fired have surged on prediction markets after her defence of the fatal shooting of Alex Pretti in Minnesota. The Homeland Security secretary now leads the pack on both Polymarket and Kalshi for the question of who will be the first to leave the Trump administration.
Having been tipped at only 12 per cent probability on 21 January, Noem had soared to 40 per cent on Kalshi and 43 per cent on Polymarket as of Monday afternoon. That put her well ahead of Attorney General Pam Bondi, criticised over the Epstein files, and Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer, accused of taking staff to a strip club on an official trip.
New York’s Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul called on Noem to resign, saying she had “forfeited her right to lead”. Alex Jeffrey Pretti, a 37-year-old intensive care nurse, was the sixth person to die during Trump’s immigration crackdown when he was shot by federal agents while protesting in Minneapolis. Noem said Pretti approached officers with a handgun and “reacted violently”, but video footage appears to contradict that account, showing no visible weapon in his hand as agents tackled him.
President Trump declined to expressly defend Noem, telling the Wall Street Journal: “We’re looking, we’re reviewing everything.” The Department of Homeland Security denied reports that officer Gregory Bovino had been removed from his role after a federal judge accused him of “outright lying” about use of force. Bipartisan criticism has mounted, with Vermont’s Republican Governor Phil Scott calling the killing potentially “murder” and Louisiana congressman Bill Cassidy saying it was “incredibly disturbing”.
Polymarket and Kalshi, prediction market platforms, allow users to bet on future events and are classified as financial trading platforms by US regulators, enabling them to operate in states that ban online gambling.
