A groundbreaking Guardian investigation of 100 years of parliamentary speeches has revealed that Labour and Conservative MPs are now speaking about immigration in more hostile terms than at almost any point in the past century. The steepest swing from positive to negative rhetoric occurred in just the past five years, according to the analysis.
Researchers say the two main parties appear locked in competition over who can sound toughest on immigration, particularly after the rise of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK. The findings show that positive sentiment in parliamentary debates reached an all-time high in 2018—possibly reflecting support for Windrush victims and a post-Brexit lull—before falling sharply.
Carmen Aguilar García, the Guardian’s data projects editor, noted that when she returned from maternity leave in 2025, she was struck by how dramatically the political rhetoric had hardened. “Keir Starmer delivered the ‘island of strangers’ speech. That felt like a shock to me,” she said. Senior Labour figures, including Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, have spoken about limiting Article 8 human rights claims to speed up deportations.
The project found that the tone has shifted from celebrating Britain’s tradition of welcoming refugees to increasingly framing migrants as criminals. “We reached an all-time high in positive rhetoric around 2018, and now we are at one of the most negative moments again,” Aguilar García added.
